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Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows?

Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows? Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows? By DAVID CARD AND JOHN DINARDO* The rise in immigration that followed the lifting of national-origin quotas in 1965 has led to significant changes in the size and composition of the U.S. population. Despite the presumption that increases in immigration will necessarily harm the labor-market opportunities of natives, most studies over the past decade have found only very modest effects. The usual approach in this literature, the so-called “areaanalysis” method, is to correlate wage levels in different metropolitan areas (or changes in these wage levels) with the fraction of immigrants in the metropolitan area.1 Point estimates from these studies suggest that a 10-percent increase in the fraction of immigrants lowers native wages by no more than 1 percent. These findings are also consistent with the “natural experiment” provided by Miami’s experience following the 1980 Mariel Boatlift: despite a rapid increase in low-skilled workers, there was no discernable effect on the wages of lessskilled natives (Card, 1990). Recent work by Borjas et al. (1996, 1997), however, has been critical of these analyses. Borjas et al. argue that a core assumption of these studies, that immigration leads to an increase in the supply http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Economic Review American Economic Association

Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows?

Card, David; DiNardo, John
American Economic Review , Volume 90 (2) – May 1, 2000
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Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2000 by the American Economic Association
Subject
Papers
ISSN
0002-8282
DOI
10.1257/aer.90.2.360
Publisher site
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Abstract

Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows? By DAVID CARD AND JOHN DINARDO* The rise in immigration that followed the lifting of national-origin quotas in 1965 has led to significant changes in the size and composition of the U.S. population. Despite the presumption that increases in immigration will necessarily harm the labor-market opportunities of natives, most studies over the past decade have found only very modest effects. The usual approach in this literature, the so-called “areaanalysis” method, is to correlate wage levels in different metropolitan areas (or changes in these wage levels) with the fraction of immigrants in the metropolitan area.1 Point estimates from these studies suggest that a 10-percent increase in the fraction of immigrants lowers native wages by no more than 1 percent. These findings are also consistent with the “natural experiment” provided by Miami’s experience following the 1980 Mariel Boatlift: despite a rapid increase in low-skilled workers, there was no discernable effect on the wages of lessskilled natives (Card, 1990). Recent work by Borjas et al. (1996, 1997), however, has been critical of these analyses. Borjas et al. argue that a core assumption of these studies, that immigration leads to an increase in the supply

Journal

American Economic Review – American Economic Association

Published: May 1, 2000

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