Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
G. Robinson, J. Quinn, M. Stanton (1995)
Invasibility of experimental habitat Islands in a California winter annual grasslandEcology, 76
H. Steenkamp, S. Chown (1996)
Influence of dense stands of an exotic tree, Prosopis glandulosa Benson, on a savanna dung beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) assemblage in southern AfricaBiological Conservation, 78
C. Margules, J. Stein (1989)
Patterns in the distributions of species and the selection of nature reserves: An example from Eucalyptus forests in South-eastern New South WalesBiological Conservation, 50
T. Yee, N. Mitchell (1991)
Generalized additive models in plant ecologyJournal of Vegetation Science, 2
パスコ (1997)
ARC/INFO Version 7.0.4 クイックコマンドリファレンス
P. Holmes, R. Cowling (1997)
The effects of invasion by Acacia saligna on the guild structure and regeneration capabilities of South African fynbos shrublands.Journal of Applied Ecology, 34
J. Franklin (1995)
Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradientsProgress in Physical Geography, 19
T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani (2014)
Generalized Additive Models
Van Wilgen Van Wilgen (1996)
Management of the natural ecosystems of the Cape Peninsula: current status and future prospects.Biological Conservation, 5
D. Tilman (1997)
COMMUNITY INVASIBILITY, RECRUITMENT LIMITATION, AND GRASSLAND BIODIVERSITYEcology, 78
J. Meyer, J. Florence (1996)
Tahiti's native flora endangered by the invasion of Miconia calvescens DC. (Melastomataceae)Journal of Biogeography, 23
D. White, P. Minotti, Mary Barczak, J. Sifneos, K. Freemark, M. Santelmann, C. Steinitz, A. Kiester, E. Preston (1997)
Assessing Risks to Biodiversity from Future Landscape ChangeConservation Biology, 11
Richardson Richardson, Van Wilgen Van Wilgen, Higgins Higgins, Trinder‐Smith Trinder‐Smith, Cowling Cowling, McKelly McKelly (1996)
Current and future threats to plant biodiversity on the Cape Peninsula, South Africa.Biodiversity and Conservation, 5
P. Chang, D. Collett (1993)
Modeling Binary Data.Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88
Michael Anable, M. McClaran, G. Ruyle (1992)
Spread of introduced Lehmann lovegrass Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees. in Southern Arizona, USABiological Conservation, 61
S. Pimm, G. Russell, J. Gittleman, Thomas Brooks (1995)
The Future of BiodiversityScience, 269
M. Huston (1997)
Hidden treatments in ecological experiments: re-evaluating the ecosystem function of biodiversityOecologia, 110
A. Guisan, J. Theurillat, F. Kienast (1998)
Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an alpine environmentJournal of Vegetation Science, 9
M. Austin, A. Nicholls, M. Doherty, Jacqui Meyers (1994)
Determining species response functions to an environmental gradient by means of a β‐functionJournal of Vegetation Science, 5
Simmons Simmons, Cowling Cowling (1996)
Why is the Cape Peninsula so rich in plant species? An analysis of the independent diversity components.Biodiversity and Conservation, 5
Daniel Brown (1994)
Predicting vegetation types at treeline using topography and biophysical disturbance variablesJournal of Vegetation Science, 5
Cowling Cowling, Macdonald Macdonald, Simmons Simmons (1996)
The Cape Peninsula, South Africa: physiographical, biological and historical background to an extraordinary hot‐spot of biodiversity.Biodiversity and Conservation, 5
Trinder‐Smith Trinder‐Smith, Cowling Cowling, Linder Linder (1996)
Profiling a besieged flora: endemic and threatened plants of the Cape Peninsula.Biodiversity and Conservation, 5
M. Austin, A. Nicholls, C. Margules (1990)
Measurement of the realized qualitative niche: environmental niches of five Eucalyptus speciesEcological Monographs, 60
S. Higgins, J. Turpie, R. Costanza, R. Cowling, D. Maitre, C. Marais, G. Midgley (1997)
An ecological economic simulation model of mountain fynbos ecosystems: Dynamics, valuation and managementEcological Economics, 22
P. Smith (1994)
Autocorrelation in the logistic regression modelling of species distributions, 4
J. Pereira, R. Itami (1991)
GIS-based habitat modeling using logistic multiple regression : a study of the Mt. Graham red squirrelPhotogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 57
M. Rejmánek (1996)
Species Richness and Resistance to Invasions
C. Musil (1993)
Effect of invasive Australian acacias on the regeneration, growth and nutrient chemistry of South African lowland fynbos.Journal of Applied Ecology, 30
(1992)
Plant and animal invasions
(1996)
Current and future threats to plant biodiversity on the Cape Peninsula
(1996)
Proposed standard vegetation and fuel model classification for Cape fynbos and non - fynbos communities
(1992)
Plant diversity and endemism. Pages 62-112 in
D. Maitre, B. Wilgen, R. Chapman, D. Mckelly (1996)
Invasive plants and water resources in the Western Cape Province, South Africa: modelling the consequences of a lack of management.Journal of Applied Ecology, 33
A. Nicholls (1989)
How to make biological surveys go further with generalised linear modelsBiological Conservation, 50
R. Green (1979)
Sampling design and statistical methods for environmental biologists.
L. Swift (1976)
Algorithm for solar radiation on mountain slopesWater Resources Research, 12
Holmes Holmes, Cowling Cowling (1997)
Effects of invasion by Acacia saligna on the guild structure and regeneration capabilities of fynbos shrublands.Journal of Applied Ecology, 34
D. Richardson, I. Macdonald, G. Forsyth (1989)
Reductions in Plant Species Richness under Stands of Alien Trees and Shrubs in the Fynbos BiomeSouth African forestry journal, 149
P. Vitousek, L. Walker (1989)
Biological invasion by Myrica faya in Hawai'i: plant demography, nitrogen fixation, ecosystem effectsEcological Monographs, 59
Higgins Higgins, Richardson Richardson (1998)
Pine invasions in the Southern Hemisphere: modeling the interactions between organism, environment and disturbance.Plant Ecology, 135
(1998)
Pines as invaders in the southern hemisphere
K. Tucker, D. Richardson (1995)
An expert system for screening potentially invasive alien plants in South African fynbosJournal of Environmental Management, 44
(1994)
Spe - cies diversity , functional diversity and functional redundancy in fynbos communities
R. Payne, P. Lane, P. Digby, S. Harding, P. Leech, G. Morgan, A. Todd, Robin Thompson, G. Wilson, S. Welham, Rodger White (1994)
Genstat 5 release 3 reference manualJournal of The Royal Statistical Society Series A-statistics in Society, 157
S. Higgins, D. Richardson, R. Cowling (1996)
Modeling invasive plant spread: the role of plant-environment interactions and model structure.Ecology, 77
Harvey Alexander (1999)
Nature's services: Societal dependence on natural ecosystemsCorporate Environmental Strategy
S. Reichard, C. Hamilton (1997)
Predicting Invasions of Woody Plants Introduced into North AmericaConservation Biology, 11
R. Cowling, R. Costanza, S. Higgins, G. Daily (1997)
Services supplied by South African fynbos ecosystems.
J. Leathwick (1995)
Climatic relationships of some New Zealand forest tree speciesJournal of Vegetation Science, 6
David Allan, James Harrison, RenéA. Navarro, B. Wilgen, Mark Thompson (1997)
The impact of commercial afforestation on bird populations in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa — Insights from bird-atlas dataBiological Conservation, 79
Trinder‐Smith Trinder‐Smith, Lombard Lombard, Picker Picker (1996)
Reserve scenarios for the Cape Peninsula: high‐, middle‐ and low‐road options for conserving the remaining biodiversity.Biodiversity and Conservation, 5
Abstract: Invasive alien organisms pose a major threat to global biodiversity. The Cape Peninsula, South Africa, provides a case study of the threat of alien plants to native plant diversity. We sought to identify where alien plants would invade the landscape and what their threat to plant diversity could be. This information is needed to develop a strategy for managing these invasions at the landscape scale. We used logistic regression models to predict the potential distribution of six important invasive alien plants in relation to several environmental variables. The logistic regression models showed that alien plants could cover over 89% of the Cape Peninsula. Acacia cyclops and Pinus pinaster were predicted to cover the greatest area. These predictions were overlaid on the current distribution of native plant diversity for the Cape Peninsula in order to quantify the threat of alien plants to native plant diversity. We defined the threat to native plant diversity as the number of native plant species (divided into all species, rare and threatened species, and endemic species) whose entire range is covered by the predicted distribution of alien plant species. We used a null model, which assumed a random distribution of invaded sites, to assess whether area invaded is confounded with threat to native plant diversity. The null model showed that most alien species threaten more plant species than might be suggested by the area they are predicted to invade. For instance, the logistic regression model predicted that P. pinaster threatens 350 more native species, 29 more rare and threatened species, and 21 more endemic species than the null model would predict. Comparisons between the null and logistic regression models suggest that species richness and invasibility are positively correlated and that species richness is a poor indicator of invasive resistance in the study site. Our results emphasize the importance of adopting a spatially explicit approach to quantifying threats to biodiversity, and they provide the information needed to prioritize threats from alien species and the sites that need urgent management intervention.
Conservation Biology – Wiley
Published: Apr 1, 1999
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.