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Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?

Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant? We compile econometric evidence from the latest available time series data on US savings, consumption, interest rates, and gross domestic product (GDP) to test a reduced form model of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). We build indexes that mimic the gap between the market and natural rates of interest and, using this gap as a proxy for expansionary policy, uncover evidence that changes in reserves lead to changes in real GDP in the manner predicted by ABCT. In addition, we establish that the pattern of endogenous changes in output, from positive to negative, also conforms to the predictions of ABCT. Thus, by incorporating improvements with regard to data and methods over the few other examples of econometric work in this area, we provide more distinctive evidence on ABCT relative to competing theories of the business cycle than has been done previously. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Review of Austrian Economics Springer Journals

Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?

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References (18)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 by Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
Subject
Economics; Public Finance; Political Science; History of Economic Thought/Methodology
ISSN
0889-3047
eISSN
1573-7128
DOI
10.1007/s11138-008-0044-6
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We compile econometric evidence from the latest available time series data on US savings, consumption, interest rates, and gross domestic product (GDP) to test a reduced form model of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). We build indexes that mimic the gap between the market and natural rates of interest and, using this gap as a proxy for expansionary policy, uncover evidence that changes in reserves lead to changes in real GDP in the manner predicted by ABCT. In addition, we establish that the pattern of endogenous changes in output, from positive to negative, also conforms to the predictions of ABCT. Thus, by incorporating improvements with regard to data and methods over the few other examples of econometric work in this area, we provide more distinctive evidence on ABCT relative to competing theories of the business cycle than has been done previously.

Journal

The Review of Austrian Economics – Springer Journals

Published: Apr 26, 2008

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