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Theory of Financial Decision Making
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Copyright
- 1990 The American Finance Association
- ISSN
- 0022-1082
- eISSN
- 1540-6261
- DOI
- 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02429.x
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
ABSTRACT An intertemporal general equilibrium model relates financial asset returns to movements in aggregate output. The model is a standard neoclassical growth model with serial correlation in aggregate output. Changes in aggregate output lead to attempts by agents to smooth consumption, which affects the required rate of return on financial assets. Since aggregate output is serially correlated and hence predictable, the theory suggests that stock returns can be predicted based on rational forecasts of output. The empirical results confirm that stock returns are a predictable function of aggregate output and also support the accompanying implications of the model.
Journal
The Journal of Finance – Wiley
Published: Sep 1, 1990