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Predicting the Uncertain Future of Tropical Forest Species in a Data Vacuum

Predicting the Uncertain Future of Tropical Forest Species in a Data Vacuum When supported by sufficient evidence , predictive analyses and scenario building can make important contributions towards devising conservation policy strategies. Wright and Muller‐Landau (2006a, henceforth termed WMLa) provide a timely analysis that attempts to predict the future of tropical forest species based on human population‐driven projections of tropical deforestation. Citing evidence of slowing population growth and rapid urbanization they suggest that deforestation rates are expected to decrease, and natural forest regeneration through secondary succession to accelerate. WMLa use their predictions of an increase in secondary forest area to paint an optimistic picture of the future, going so far as to suggest that the widely anticipated mass extinction of tropical forest species will be avoided (see also Aide & Grau 2004 ). Brook (2006, henceforth termed BBKS) reject the optimistic predictions of WMLa by reinforcing the importance of a number of original caveats made by WMLa, as well as raising additional objections. BBKS indicate that the relationship between rural and urban population growth and deforestation is too complex to be reliably predicted. They also argue that the negative effects of the heavy momentum set in motion by current patterns of deforestation and population growth ( i.e. , loss of http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Biotropica Wiley

Predicting the Uncertain Future of Tropical Forest Species in a Data Vacuum

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References (58)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0006-3606
eISSN
1744-7429
DOI
10.1111/j.1744-7429.2006.00228.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

When supported by sufficient evidence , predictive analyses and scenario building can make important contributions towards devising conservation policy strategies. Wright and Muller‐Landau (2006a, henceforth termed WMLa) provide a timely analysis that attempts to predict the future of tropical forest species based on human population‐driven projections of tropical deforestation. Citing evidence of slowing population growth and rapid urbanization they suggest that deforestation rates are expected to decrease, and natural forest regeneration through secondary succession to accelerate. WMLa use their predictions of an increase in secondary forest area to paint an optimistic picture of the future, going so far as to suggest that the widely anticipated mass extinction of tropical forest species will be avoided (see also Aide & Grau 2004 ). Brook (2006, henceforth termed BBKS) reject the optimistic predictions of WMLa by reinforcing the importance of a number of original caveats made by WMLa, as well as raising additional objections. BBKS indicate that the relationship between rural and urban population growth and deforestation is too complex to be reliably predicted. They also argue that the negative effects of the heavy momentum set in motion by current patterns of deforestation and population growth ( i.e. , loss of

Journal

BiotropicaWiley

Published: Jan 1, 2007

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