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Applications of Phenological Models to Predict the Future Carbon Sequestration Potential of Boreal Forests

Applications of Phenological Models to Predict the Future Carbon Sequestration Potential of... Changes in the duration of the photosynthetically active period strongly influence the changes in the carbon sequestration potential of boreal forests under climatic warming. In this paper, current theories on the effects of environmental variables such as spring air and soil temperature, photoperiod and chilling temperatures on the timing and initiation of photosynthesis in boreal deciduous and coniferous trees are discussed. Different dynamic phenological modeling approaches are reviewed, and model simulations are utilized to demonstrate model predictions under changing climatic conditions. A process-based forest ecosystem model is applied to estimate the relative importance of the duration of the photosynthetically active period on the amount of annual gross primary production and net primary production of boreal coniferous forests. All applied modeling approaches predict an increasing duration of the photosynthetically active period as a result of climatic warming. However, the magnitude of the response to increasing temperature varies between models and therefore affects the predictions of the changes in production. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Climatic Change Springer Journals

Applications of Phenological Models to Predict the Future Carbon Sequestration Potential of Boreal Forests

Climatic Change , Volume 55 (2) – Oct 10, 2004

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References (48)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Earth Sciences; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
ISSN
0165-0009
eISSN
1573-1480
DOI
10.1023/A:1020251507469
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Changes in the duration of the photosynthetically active period strongly influence the changes in the carbon sequestration potential of boreal forests under climatic warming. In this paper, current theories on the effects of environmental variables such as spring air and soil temperature, photoperiod and chilling temperatures on the timing and initiation of photosynthesis in boreal deciduous and coniferous trees are discussed. Different dynamic phenological modeling approaches are reviewed, and model simulations are utilized to demonstrate model predictions under changing climatic conditions. A process-based forest ecosystem model is applied to estimate the relative importance of the duration of the photosynthetically active period on the amount of annual gross primary production and net primary production of boreal coniferous forests. All applied modeling approaches predict an increasing duration of the photosynthetically active period as a result of climatic warming. However, the magnitude of the response to increasing temperature varies between models and therefore affects the predictions of the changes in production.

Journal

Climatic ChangeSpringer Journals

Published: Oct 10, 2004

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