Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
A. Shorrocks (1976)
Income Mobility and the Markov AssumptionThe Economic Journal, 86
Thornburn Thornburn (1983)
Forecasting aggregate time series using empirical transition matricesScand. J. Statist., 10
P. Wing (1969)
Yearbook of agricultural statistics
D. Thorburn (1980)
Forecasting the agricultural structure using empirical transition matricesEuropean Review of Agricultural Economics, 7
Tsoung-chao Lee, G. Judge, A. Zellner (1971)
Estimating the parameters of the Markov probability model from aggregate time series data
Shorrocks Shorrocks (1976)
Income mobility and Markov assumptionsEcon. J., 86
Thorburn Thorburn (1981)
Projections by means of longitudinal studies and transition matricesStatist. Tidskr., 19
In this paper we consider a population where the state of each individual follows a Markov chain. If the population is recorded for a very few periods only, it is still possible to estimate the transition matrix and to make projections into the far future. These forecasts are sensible if the chains are time homogeneous, but this is difficult to check if only a few periods are observed. We suggest a simple method to check this assumption, and obtain an upper bound on the time the process can have been time homogeneous. The method is also applied to a second‐order Markov chain and to the mover‐stayer model. AMS subject classification (1980): Primary 62M05, Secondary 62M20.
Journal of Forecasting – Wiley
Published: Jan 1, 1989
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.