Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
M. Hopp, J. Foley (2003)
Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variabilityClimate Research, 25
P. Sharpe, D. Demichele (1977)
Reaction kinetics of poikilotherm development.Journal of theoretical biology, 64 4
C. Williams, Petrina Johnson, S. Long, L. Rapley, S. Ritchie (2008)
Rapid Estimation of Aedes aegypti Population Size Using Simulation Modeling, with a Novel Approach to Calibration and Field Validation, 45
C. Parmesan (2006)
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate ChangeAnnual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 37
J. Patz, S. Olson (2006)
Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease riskAnnals of Tropical Medicine & Parasitology, 100
M. Barzeev (1958)
The Effect of Temperature on the Growth Rate and Survival of the immature Stages of Aëdes aegypti (L.).Bulletin of Entomological Research, 49
R. Holt, T. Keitt (2005)
Species' borders: A unifying theme in ecologyOikos, 108
W. Porter (1989)
New Animal Models and Experiments for Calculating Growth Potential at Different ElevationsPhysiological Zoology, 62
S. Ritchie, J. Hanna, S. Hills, J. Piispanen, J. Mcbride, A. Pyke, R. Spark (2002)
Dengue Control in North Queensland, Australia: Case Recognition and Selective Indoor Residual Spraying
W. Mukabana, W. Takken, G. Killeen, B. Knols (2004)
Allomonal effect of breath contributes to differential attractiveness of humans to the African malaria vector Anopheles gambiaeMalaria Journal, 3
S. Hay, S. Hay, J. Cox, D. Rogers, S. Randolph, David Stern, G. Shanks, Monica Myers, R. Snow, R. Snow (2002)
Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlandsNature, 415
B. Kay, P. Ryan, B. Russell, J. Holt, S. Lyons, P. Foley (2000)
The Importance of Subterranean Mosquito Habitat to Arbovirus Vector Control Strategies in North Queensland, Australia, 37
W. Porter, S. Budaraju, W. Stewart, N. Ramankutty (2000)
Calculating Climate Effects on Birds and Mammals: Impacts on Biodiversity, Conservation, Population Parameters, and Global Community Structure1, 40
Juliano Juliano, O'meara O'meara, Morrill Morrill, Cutwa Cutwa (2002)
Desiccation and thermal tolerance of eggs and the coexistence of competing mosquitosOecologia, 130
G. Acquaah (2012)
Introduction to Quantitative GeneticsQuantitative Genetics
S. Ritchie (2005)
Evolution of dengue control strategies in north Queensland, Australia
W. Tun-Lin, A. Barnes (1999)
Interspecific Association Between Aedes aegypti and Aedes notoscriptus in Northern Queensland
A. O'gower (1956)
Control Measures for Aedes aegypti. Surveys in Northern Australia.Health, 6
W. Bradshaw, C. Holzapfel (2006)
Evolutionary Response to Rapid Climate ChangeScience, 312
P. Brakefield (2001)
Adaptive Genetic Variation in the WildHeredity, 86
(1967)
Laboratory studies of mosquito flight: III. Effect of temperature and relative humidity on flight ability of female Aedes aegypti. Department of the Army
S. Hales, N. Wet, J. Maindonald, A. Woodward (2002)
Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical modelThe Lancet, 360
Honório Honório, Da Costa Silva Da Costa Silva, Leite Leite, Gonçalves Gonçalves, Lounibos Lounibos, Lourenço‐De‐Oliveira Lourenço‐De‐Oliveira (2003)
Dispersal of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in an urban endemic dengue area in the state of Rio de Janeiro, BrazilMem Inst Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, 98
W. Tun-Lin, T. Burkot, B. Kay (2000)
Effects of temperature and larval diet on development rates and survival of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in north Queensland, AustraliaMedical and Veterinary Entomology, 14
N. Honório, W. Silva, P. Leite, J. Gonçalves, L. Lounibos, R. Lourenço-de-Oliveira (2003)
Dispersal of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in an urban endemic dengue area in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 98 2
G. Lindfield, J. Penny (1998)
Numerical Methods Using MATLAB
C. Stringer (1985)
Evolution of a speciesThe Geographical magazine, 57
Natori Natori, Porter Porter (2007)
Japanese serow ( Capricornis crispus ) energetics landscape modelling predicts distribution on Honshu, JapanEcological Applications, 17
P. Martens, R. Kovats, S. Nijhof, P. Vries, Matthew Livermore, D. Bradley, J. Cox, A. Mcmichael (1999)
Climate change and future populations at risk of malariaGlobal Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 9
(1990)
The distribution of Aedes aegypti in Queensland
M. Kearney, B. Phillips, C. Tracy, K. Christian, Gregory Betts, W. Porter (2008)
Modelling species distributions without using species distributions: the cane toad in Australia under current and future climatesEcography, 31
J. Hanna, S. Ritchie, A. Richards, C. Taylor, A. Pyke, B. Montgomery, J. Piispanen, Anna Morgan, J. Humphreys (2006)
Multiple outbreaks of dengue serotype 2 in north Queensland, 2003/04Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 30
M. Kirkpatrick, N. Barton (1997)
Evolution of a Species' RangeThe American Naturalist, 150
L. Rueda, K. Patel, R. Axtell, R. Stinner (1990)
Temperature-dependent development and survival rates of Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).Journal of medical entomology, 27 5
Sinclair Sinclair (1992)
The distribution of Aedes aegypti in Queensland, 1990 to 30 June 1992Communicable Disease Intelligence, 16
A. Hoffmann, M. Watson (1993)
Geographical Variation in the Acclimation Responses of Drosophila to Temperature ExtremesThe American Naturalist, 142
P. Barker‐Hudson, R. Jones, B. Kay (1988)
Categorization of domestic breeding habitats of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Northern Queensland, Australia.Journal of medical entomology, 25 3
R. Russell (1986)
Larval Competition Between the Introduced Vector of Dengue Fever in Australia, Aedes-Aegypti (L), and a Native Container-Breeding Mosquito, Aedes-Notoscriptus (Skuse) (Diptera, Culicidae)Australian Journal of Zoology, 34
P. Reiter (2007)
Oviposition, dispersal, and survival in Aedes aegypti: implications for the efficacy of control strategies.Vector borne and zoonotic diseases, 7 2
N. Mitchell, M. Kearney, N. Nelson, W. Porter (2008)
Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 275
(2001)
Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the third assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
Warren Porter, John Mitchell, W. Beckman, Calvin DeWitt (1973)
Behavioral implications of mechanistic ecologyOecologia, 13
R. Russell, C. Webb, C. Williams, S. Ritchie, S. Ritchie (2005)
Mark–release–recapture study to measure dispersal of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in Cairns, Queensland, AustraliaMedical and Veterinary Entomology, 19
(2000)
ANUSPLIN User Guide Version 4·1. Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies
C. Machado-Allison, G. Craig (1972)
Geographic Variation in Resistance to Desiccation in Aedes aegypti and A. atropalpus (Diptera: Culicidae)Annals of The Entomological Society of America, 65
A. Peterson, C. Martínez-Campos, Y. Nakazawa, E. Martínez‐Meyer (2005)
Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 99 9
M. Blows, A. Hoffmann (2005)
A reassessment of genetic limits to evolutionary changeEcology, 86
D. Focks, D. Haile, E. Daniels, G. Mount (1993)
Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): analysis of the literature and model development.Journal of medical entomology, 30 6
M. Kearney, W. Porter (2009)
Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges.Ecology letters, 12 4
Porter Porter, Mitchell Mitchell, Beckman Beckman, Dewitt Dewitt (1973)
Behavioral implications of mechanistic ecology – Thermal and behavioral modeling of desert ectotherms and their microenvironmentOecologia, 13
P. Martens, C. Thomas (2005)
Climate change and malaria risk: complexity and scaling, 9
A. Hoffmann, P. Parsons (1993)
Selection for adult desiccation resistance in Drosophila melanogaster: fitness components, larval resistance and stress correlationsBiological Journal of The Linnean Society, 48
Chris Thomas, G. Davies, C. Dunn (2004)
Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa.Trends in parasitology, 20 5
G. Forsythe, M. Malcolm, C. Moler (1977)
Computer methods for mathematical computations
M. Hoshen, Andrew Morse (2004)
A weather-driven model of malaria transmissionMalaria Journal, 3
F. Grund (1979)
Forsythe, G. E. / Malcolm, M. A. / Moler, C. B., Computer Methods for Mathematical Computations. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey 07632. Prentice Hall, Inc., 1977. XI, 259 SZamm-zeitschrift Fur Angewandte Mathematik Und Mechanik, 59
M. Kearney, W. Porter (2004)
MAPPING THE FUNDAMENTAL NICHE: PHYSIOLOGY, CLIMATE, AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF A NOCTURNAL LIZARDEcology, 85
S. Tong, Wenbiao Hu (2001)
Climate variation and incidence of Ross river virus in Cairns, Australia: a time-series analysis.Environmental Health Perspectives, 109
D. Focks, E. Daniels, D. Haile, J. Keesling (1995)
A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 53 5
M. Pascual, J. Ahumada, L. Chaves, X. Rodó, M. Bouma (2006)
Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103 15
(2006)
Method and system for calculating the spatial-temporal effects of climate and other environmental conditions on animals
A. Hoffmann, M. Blows (1994)
Species borders: ecological and evolutionary perspectives.Trends in ecology & evolution, 9 6
A. Hoffmann, P. Daborn (2007)
Towards genetic markers in animal populations as biomonitors for human-induced environmental change.Ecology letters, 10 1
T. Ruang-areerate, P. Kittayapong (2006)
Wolbachia transinfection in Aedes aegypti: A potential gene driver of dengue vectorsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103
A. Hoffmann, L. Harshman (1999)
Desiccation and starvation resistance in Drosophila: patterns of variation at the species, population and intrapopulation levelsHeredity, 83
D. Focks, D. Haile, E. Daniels, G. Mount (1993)
Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (diptera: Culicidae): simulation results and validation.Journal of medical entomology, 30 6
L. Muir, Brian Kay (1998)
Aedes aegypti survival and dispersal estimated by mark-release-recapture in northern Australia.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 58 3
D. Lee, M. Hicks, M. Debenham, M. Griffiths, J. Bryan, E. Marks (1988)
The Culicidae of the Australasian Region. Volume 10. Nomenclature, synonymy, literature, distribution, biology and relation to disease. Genera Maorigoeldia, Mimomyia, Opifex, Orthopodomyia, Topomyia, Toxorhynchites.
R. Russell, David Lee, Yves Stanislas (1984)
'Aedes aegypti' (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) in New South WalesGeneral and Applied Entomology: The Journal of the Entomological Society of New South Wales, 16
M. Pigliucci, C. Schlichting (1997)
On the Limits of Quantitative Genetics for the Study of Phenotypic EvolutionActa Biotheoretica, 45
Y. Natori, W. Porter (2007)
Model of Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) energetics predicts distribution on Honshu, Japan.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 17 5
M. Kearney (2006)
Habitat, environment and niche: what are we modelling?Oikos, 115
Summary 1 Climate change will alter the distribution and abundance of many species, including those of concern to human health. Accurate predictions of these impacts must be based on an understanding of the mechanistic links between climate and organisms, and a consideration of evolutionary responses. 2 Here we use biophysical models of energy and mass transfer to predict climatic impacts on the potential range of the dengue fever vector, Aedes aegypti, in Australia. We develop a first‐principles approach to calculate water depth and daily temperature cycles in containers differing in size, catchment and degree of shading to assess habitat suitability for the aquatic life cycle phase. We also develop a method to predict potential climatic impacts on the evolutionary response of traits limiting distribution. 3 Our predictions show strong correspondence with the current and historical distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti in Australia, suggesting that inland and northern limits are set by water availability and egg desiccation resistance, and southern limits by adult and larval cold tolerance. 4 While we predict that climate change will directly increase habitat suitability throughout much of Australia, the potential indirect impact of changed water storage practices by humans in response to drought may have a greater effect. 5 In northern Australia, we show that evolutionary changes in egg desiccation resistance could potentially increase the chances of establishment in a major centre (Darwin) under climate change. 6 Our study demonstrates how biophysical models of climate–animal interactions can be applied to make decisions about managing biotic responses to climate change. Mechanistic models of the kind we apply here can provide more robust and general predictions than correlative analyses. They can also explicitly incorporate evolutionary responses, the outcomes of which may significantly alter management decisions.
Functional Ecology – Wiley
Published: Jun 1, 2009
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.