Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
G. Koppenhaver (1983)
The forward pricing efficiency of the live cattle futures marketJournal of Futures Markets, 3
G. Kaminsky (1989)
Efficiency in Commodity Futures MarketsAgricultural & Natural Resource Economics
R. Huang (1984)
Some alternative tests of forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot ratesJournal of International Money and Finance, 3
J. Frenkel (1978)
Further Evidence on Expectations and the Demand for Money During the German HyperinflationEconomic History
P. Phillips (1988)
Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression
B. Goss (1981)
The forward pricing function of the London metal exchangeApplied Economics, 13
P. Sephton, Donald Cochrane (1990)
A note on the efficiency of the London metal exchangeEconomics Letters, 33
David Hsieh, N. Kulatilaka (1982)
Rational Expectations and Risk Premia in Forward Markets: Primary Metals at the London Metals ExchangeJournal of Finance, 37
L. Hansen, R. Hodrick (1980)
Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric AnalysisJournal of Political Economy, 88
W. Tomek, R. Gray (1970)
Temporal Relationships Among Prices on Commodity Futures Markets: Their Allocative and Stabilizing RolesAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics, 52
Frenkel Frenkel (1979)
Further Evidence on Expectations and the Demand for Money During the German HyperinflationJournal of Monetary Economics, 5
E. Fama, K. French (1988)
Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals PricesJournal of Finance, 43
T. Cargill, G. Rausser (1975)
TEMPORAL PRICE BEHAVIOR IN COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETSJournal of Finance, 30
Tetteh Kofi (1973)
A Framework for Comparing the Efficiency of Futures MarketsAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics, 55
D. Dickey, W. Fuller (1979)
Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit RootJournal of the American Statistical Association, 74
R. Meese, K. Singleton (1982)
On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange RatesJournal of Finance, 37
E. Elam, B. Dixon (1988)
Examining the validity of a test of futures market efficiencyJournal of Futures Markets, 8
C. Nelson, Charles Plosser (1982)
Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: Some evidence and implicationsJournal of Monetary Economics, 10
R. MacDonald, Mark Taylor (1989)
Rational expectations, risk and efficiency in the London Metal Exchange: an empirical analysisApplied Economics, 21
R. Engle, C. Granger (1987)
Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testingEconometrica, 55
Scott Hein, Christopher Ma, S. MacDonald (1990)
Testing unbiasedness in futures markets: A clarificationJournal of Futures Markets, 10
Canarella Canarella, Pollard Pollard (1986)
The Efficiency of the London Metal Exchange: A Test with Overlapping and Non‐overlapping DataJournal of Banking and Finance, 10
M. Gross (1988)
A semi‐strong test of the efficiency of the aluminum and copper markets at the LMEJournal of Futures Markets, 8
B. Goss (1983)
The semi-strong form efficiency of the London Metal ExchangeApplied Economics, 15
D. Bigman, D. Goldfarb, E. Schechtman (1983)
Futures market efficiency and the time content of the information setsJournal of Futures Markets, 3
Granger Granger (1986)
Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic VariablesOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48
P. Garcia, R. Leuthold, T. Fortenbery, Gboroton Sarassoro (1988)
Pricing Efficiency in the Live Cattle Futures Market: Further Interpretation and MeasurementAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics, 70
R. Engle, Byung Yoo (1987)
Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systemsJournal of Econometrics, 35
C. Chatfield, W. Fuller (1976)
Introduction to Statistical Time Series., 140
G. Schwert (1987)
Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic dataJournal of Monetary Economics, 20
G. Canarella, Stephen Pollard (1986)
The ‘Efficiency’ of the London metal exchangeJournal of Banking and Finance, 10
A. Harvey (1983)
Time series models
S. Gupta, Thomas Mayer (1981)
A test of the efficiency of futures markets in commoditiesWeltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 117
R. Leuthold, Peter Hartmann (1979)
A Semi-Strong Form Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Hog Futures MarketAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61
Fama Fama (1970)
Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical WorkThe Journal of Finance, 25
S. Johansen (1988)
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COINTEGRATION VECTORSJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12
E. Maberly (1985)
Testing futures market efficiency—A restatementJournal of Futures Markets, 5
Craig Hakkio, Mark Rush (1989)
Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange marketsJournal of International Money and Finance, 8
S. Turnovsky (1979)
Futures markets, private storage, and price stabilizationJournal of Public Economics, 12
Chung-Hua Shen, Lee-Rong Wang (1990)
Examining the validity of a test of futures market efficiency: A commentJournal of Futures Markets, 10
Kaminsky Kaminsky, Kumar Kumar (1990)
Efficiency in Commodity Futures MarketsInternational Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 37
his article has two major aims: first, the âefficient marketâ hypothesis is examined for four nonferrous metals- copper, lead, tin, and zinc -traded in the London Metal Exchange (LME). A futures market is efficient relative to an information set such that only new unanticipated information leads to a price change. Second, the recently developed cointegration theory is employed to test efficiency in these markets.â A problem in testing market efficiency is that financial price series are generally not stationary? Consequently, conventional statistical procedures are no longer appropriate for testing market efficiency, because they tend to bias toward incorrectly rejecting efficiency. The use of a cointegration approach properly accounts for the nonstationary behavior of futures and spot price series. Cointegration between these two variables implies that they never drift far apart. The market efficiency hypothesis, on the other hand, requires that the current futures price and the future spot price of a commodity are âclose together.â If these two price series are not cointegrated, they will tend to deviate apart without bound, which is contrary to the market efficiency hypothesis. On the other hand, if, for example, the spot prices in two different markets are cointegrated, then one of
The Journal of Futures Markets – Wiley
Published: Oct 1, 1991
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.