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Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence

Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence We explore the time-series relationship between investor sentiment and the small-stock premium using consumer confidence as a measure of investor optimism. We estimate the components of consumer confidence related to economic fundamentals and investor sentiment. After controlling for the time variation of beta, we study the time-series variation of the pricing error with sentiment. Over the last 25 years, investor sentiment measured using consumer confidence forecasts the returns of small stocks and stocks with low institutional ownership in a manner consistent with the predictions of models based on noise-trader sentiment. Sentiment does not appear to forecast time-series variation in the value and momentum premiums. (JEL G10, G12, G14) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Review of Financial Studies Oxford University Press

Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence

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Publisher
Oxford University Press
Copyright
© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org.
ISSN
0893-9454
eISSN
1465-7368
DOI
10.1093/rfs/hhj038
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We explore the time-series relationship between investor sentiment and the small-stock premium using consumer confidence as a measure of investor optimism. We estimate the components of consumer confidence related to economic fundamentals and investor sentiment. After controlling for the time variation of beta, we study the time-series variation of the pricing error with sentiment. Over the last 25 years, investor sentiment measured using consumer confidence forecasts the returns of small stocks and stocks with low institutional ownership in a manner consistent with the predictions of models based on noise-trader sentiment. Sentiment does not appear to forecast time-series variation in the value and momentum premiums. (JEL G10, G12, G14)

Journal

The Review of Financial StudiesOxford University Press

Published: Mar 15, 2006

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