Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
K. Burnham, W. Overton (1978)
Estimation of the size of a closed population when capture probabilities vary among animalsBiometrika, 65
M. Kéry (2004)
Extinction Rate Estimates for Plant Populations in Revisitation Studies: Importance of DetectabilityConservation Biology, 18
(1902)
Das obere Tösstal und die angrenzenden Gebiete floristisch und pflanzengeographyraphisch dargestellt
B. McArdle (1990)
When are rare species not thereOikos, 57
D. MacKenzie, J. Royle (2005)
Designing occupancy studies: general advice and allocating survey effortJournal of Applied Ecology, 42
M. Kéry (2002)
Inferring the absence of a species -- a case study of snakesJournal of Wildlife Management, 66
K. Burnham, W. Overton (1979)
Robust Estimation of Population Size When Capture Probabilities Vary Among Animals
(1920)
Die Alpenpflanzen des Mattstock-SpeerGebietes und ihre Verbreitung ins Zürcher Oberland
B. Drayton, R. Primack (1996)
Plant species lost in an isolated conservation area in Metropolitan Boston from 1894 to 1993.Conservation Biology, 10
R. Duncan, Jim Young (2000)
DETERMINANTS OF PLANT EXTINCTION AND RARITY 145 YEARS AFTER EUROPEAN SETTLEMENT OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALANDEcology, 81
P. Endels, H. Jacquemyn, R. Brys, M. Hermy, G. Blust (2002)
Temporal changes (1986–1999) in populations of primrose (Primula vulgaris Huds.) in an agricultural landscape and implications for conservationBiological Conservation, 105
M. Leach, T. Givnish (1996)
Ecological Determinants of Species Loss in Remnant PrairiesScience, 273
D. MacKenzie, J. Nichols, J. Hines, M. Knutson, A. Franklin (2003)
ESTIMATING SITE OCCUPANCY, COLONIZATION, AND LOCAL EXTINCTION WHEN A SPECIES IS DETECTED IMPERFECTLYEcology, 84
M. Fischer, J. Stöcklin (1997)
Local Extinctions of Plants in Remnants of Extensively Used Calcareous Grasslands 1950 –1985Conservation Biology, 11
M. Palmer (1990)
The Estimation of Species Richness by ExtrapolationEcology, 71
K. Pollock, J. Nichols, T. Simons, George Farnsworth, L. Bailey, J. Sauer (2002)
Large scale wildlife monitoring studies: statistical methods for design and analysisEnvironmetrics, 13
María García, D. Guzmán, Daniel Goñi (2002)
An evaluation of the status of five threatened plant species in the PyreneesBiological Conservation, 103
I. Turner, K. Chua, J. Ong, B. Soong, H. Tan (1996)
A Century of Plant Species Loss from an Isolated Fragment of Lowland Tropical Rain ForestConservation Biology, 10
D. Otis, K. Burnham, G. White, David Anderson (1980)
Statistical inference from capture data on closed animal populationsWildlife Monographs
J. Royle (2006)
Site Occupancy Models with Heterogeneous Detection ProbabilitiesBiometrics, 62
D. MacKenzie, J. Nichols, Gideon Lachman, S. Droege, J. Royle, C. Langtimm (2002)
ESTIMATING SITE OCCUPANCY RATES WHEN DETECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN ONEEcology, 83
A. González‐Megías, J. Gómez, F. Sánchez‐Piñero (2005)
CONSEQUENCES OF SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF METAPOPULATION DYNAMICSEcology, 86
G. White, K. Burnham (1999)
Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animalsBird Study, 46
L. Bailey, T. Simons, K. Pollock (2004)
ESTIMATING SITE OCCUPANCY AND SPECIES DETECTION PROBABILITY PARAMETERS FOR TERRESTRIAL SALAMANDERSEcological Applications, 14
Urs Landergott, J. Schneller, R. Holderegger, Gregor Kozlowski (2000)
Populationsgeschichte des seltenen Kammfarns (Dryopteris cristata) in der SchweizBotanica Helvetica, 110
(2006)
The Authors Journal compilation
J. Stöcklin, M. Fischer (1999)
Plants with longer-lived seeds have lower local extinction rates in grassland remnants 1950–1985Oecologia, 120
N. Ouborg (1993)
Isolation, population-size and extinction - the classical and metapopulation approaches applied to vascular plants along the Dutch Rhine systemOikos, 66
J. Grand, B. Williams, J. Nichols, M. Conroy (2002)
Analysis and Management of Animal Populations
J. Pellet, B. Schmidt (2005)
Monitoring distributions using call surveys: estimating site occupancy, detection probabilities and inferring absence.Biological Conservation, 123
T. Boulinier, J. Nichols, J. Sauer, J. Hines, K. Pollock (1998)
ESTIMATING SPECIES RICHNESS: THE IMPORTANCE OF HETEROGENEITY IN SPECIES DETECTABILITYEcology, 79
J. Baker (2004)
EVALUATION OF CLOSED CAPTURE–RECAPTURE METHODS TO ESTIMATE ABUNDANCE OF HAWAIIAN MONK SEALSEcological Applications, 14
B. Wintle, M. McCarthy, K. Parris, M. Burgman (2004)
PRECISION AND BIAS OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING POINT SURVEY DETECTION PROBABILITIESEcological Applications, 14
J. Lienert, M. Fischer, M. Diemer (2002)
Local extinctions of the wetland specialist Swertia perennis L. (Gentianaceae) in Switzerland: a revisitation study based on herbarium recordsBiological Conservation, 103
I. Nilsson, S. Nilsson (1982)
Turnover of vascular plant species on small islands in lake Möckeln, South Sweden 1976–1980Oecologia, 53
A. Moilanen (2002)
Implications of empirical data quality to metapopulation model parameter estimation and applicationOikos, 96
M. Palmer (1991)
Estimating Species Richness: The Second‐Order Jackknife ReconsideredEcology, 72
Summary 1 Extinction is a fundamental topic for population ecology and especially for conservation and metapopulation biology. Most empirical studies on extinction resurvey historically occupied sites and estimate extinction probability as the proportion of sites where a species is no longer detected. Possible non‐detection of surviving populations is usually not accounted for, which may result in extinction probabilities that are overestimated. 2 As part of a large revisitation study in north‐east Switzerland, 376 sites with historically known occurrences of a total of 11 plant species 80–100 years ago were visited by two independent observers. Based on typical population size, ramet size and plant architecture, we judged six species as easy to find and five species as hard to find. Using capture–recapture methods to separate non‐detection from true extinction, we gauged the bias of extinction probability estimates that do not account for non‐detection. 3 When non‐detection was not accounted for, a single visit resulted in an average estimate of population extinction probability of 0.49 (range 0.27–0.67). However, the mean detection probability of a surviving population during a single visit had an estimated average of only 0.81 (range 0.57–1). Consequently, accounting for non‐detection resulted in extinction probability estimates ranging between 0.09 and 0.61 (mean 0.36). Based on a single survey, our revisitation study would have overestimated the extinction rate on average by 11 percentage points (range 5–22%) or by 59% (range 0–250%) relative to the estimated true value. 4 A simple binomial argument enables the calculation of the minimum required number of visits to detect a surviving population with high probability (e.g. 95%). For the easy to find species, approximately two visits would be required to find most of the surviving populations, whereas up to four visits would be required for the hard to find species. 5 In revisitation studies, only repeated revisits allow the separation of extinction from simple non‐detection. Unless corrected for possible non‐detection, extinction probability may be strongly overestimated, and hence some control for non‐detection is desirable at least in a subset of species/sites in revisitation studies. These issues are also relevant to the estimation of extinction in metapopulation studies and to the collection of quality data for habitat and distribution models.
Journal of Ecology – Wiley
Published: Sep 1, 2006
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.