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Bayesian uncertainty assessment in multicompartment deterministic simulation models for environmental risk assessment

Bayesian uncertainty assessment in multicompartment deterministic simulation models for... We use a special case of Bayesian melding to make inference from deterministic models while accounting for uncertainty in the inputs to the model. The method uses all available information, based on both data and expert knowledge, and extends current methods of ‘uncertainty analysis’ by updating models using available data. We extend the methodology for use with sequential multicompartment models. We present an application of these methods to deterministic models for concentration of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) in soil and vegetables. The results are posterior distributions of concentration in soil and vegetables which account for all available evidence and uncertainty. Model uncertainty is not considered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Environmetrics Wiley

Bayesian uncertainty assessment in multicompartment deterministic simulation models for environmental risk assessment

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References (38)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN
1180-4009
eISSN
1099-095X
DOI
10.1002/env.590
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We use a special case of Bayesian melding to make inference from deterministic models while accounting for uncertainty in the inputs to the model. The method uses all available information, based on both data and expert knowledge, and extends current methods of ‘uncertainty analysis’ by updating models using available data. We extend the methodology for use with sequential multicompartment models. We present an application of these methods to deterministic models for concentration of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) in soil and vegetables. The results are posterior distributions of concentration in soil and vegetables which account for all available evidence and uncertainty. Model uncertainty is not considered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Journal

EnvironmetricsWiley

Published: Jun 1, 2003

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