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BISI5109_735-752 9/4/01 7:21 PM Page 735 Articles Forest Processes and Global Environmental Change: Predicting the Effects of Individual and Multiple Stressors JOHN ABER, RONALD P. NEILSON, STEVE M CNULTY, JAMES M. LENIHAN, DOMINIQUE BACHELET, AND RAYMOND J. DRAPEK lobal change involves the simultaneous and rapid WEREVIEW THE EFFECTS OF SEVERAL Galteration of several key environmental parameters that control the dynamics of forests. We cannot predict with cer- RAPIDLY CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL tainty, through direct experimentation, what the responses of forests to global change will be, because we cannot carry out DRIVERS ON ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION, the multisite, multifactorial experiments required for doing so. The physical extent, complexity, and expense of even DISCUSS INTERACTIONS AMONG THEM, single-factor experiments at the scale of the whole ecosystem AND SUMMARIZE PREDICTED CHANGES IN challenge our abilities, although several such experiments have been successfully undertaken (e.g., DeLucia et al. 1999, PRODUCTIVITY, CARBON STORAGE, AND Wright and Rasmussen 1998). To inform policy decisions, however, the scientific community can offer an interdiscipli- WATER BALANCE nary synthesis of existing information. When this synthesis takes the form of a computer model, quantitative predic- tions can be made that integrate what has been learned from single-factor experiments. The success of such
BioScience – Oxford University Press
Published: Sep 1, 2001
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