Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
W. Thuiller (2004)
Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate changeGlobal Change Biology, 10
J. Dukes, H. Mooney (1999)
Does global change increase the success of biological invaders?Trends in ecology & evolution, 14 4
J. McKee, P. Sciulli, C. Fooce, T. Waite (2003)
Forecasting global biodiversity threats associated with human population growthBiological Conservation, 115
Thuiller Thuiller, Araújo Araújo, Pearson Pearson (2004)
Uncertainty in predictions of extinction riskNature, 430
S. Hartley, W. Kunin (2003)
Scale Dependency of Rarity, Extinction Risk, and Conservation PriorityConservation Biology, 17
T. Root, Jeff Price, K. Hall, S. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig, J. Pounds (2003)
Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plantsNature, 421
Latimer Latimer, Silander Silander, Gelfand Gelfand (2004)
A method for quantifying the magnitude of threat to plant biodiversity from alien plant invasions and other anthropogenic factors – a case study in the Cape Floristic Region, South AfricaSouth African Journal of Science, 100
A. Purvis, J. Gittleman, G. Cowlishaw, G. Mace (2000)
Predicting extinction risk in declining speciesProceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 267
J. Donaldson, T. Walters, R. Osborne (2004)
Saving ghosts? The implications of taxonomic uncertainty and shifting infrageneric concepts in the cycadales for red listing and conservation planning.
Williams Williams, Hannah Hannah, Andelman Andelman (2005)
Planning for climate changeConservation Biology
Pearson Pearson, Dawson Dawson (2003)
Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of speciesGlobal Ecology and Biogeography, 12
C. Thomas, A. Cameron, R. Green, R. Green, M. Bakkenes, L. Beaumont, Yvonne Collingham, B. Erasmus, Marinez Siqueira, A. Grainger, L. Hannah, L. Hughes, B. Huntley, A. Jaarsveld, G. Midgley, L. Miles, L. Miles, M. Ortega-Huerta, A. Peterson, O. Phillips, S. Williams (2004)
Extinction risk from climate changeNature, 427
M. Rutherford, G. Midgley, W. Bond, L. Powrie, R. Roberts, J. Allsopp (1999)
South African Country Study on Climate Change, Plant Biodiversity: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
T. Yee, N. Mitchell (1991)
Generalized additive models in plant ecologyJournal of Vegetation Science, 2
Hannah Hannah, Midgley Midgley, Hughes Hughes (2005)
The view from the CapeBioScience, 55
R. Grumbine (1994)
What Is Ecosystem ManagementConservation Biology, 8
(1997)
Human impacts on vegetation
C. Parmesan, G. Yohe (2003)
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systemsNature, 421
Pyke Pyke, Andelman Andelman, Midgley Midgley (2005)
Identifying priority areas for bioclimatic representation under climate changeBiological Conservation
H. Trinder-Smith, R. Cowling, Hans Linder (1996)
Profiling a besieged flora: endemic and threatened plants of the Cape Peninsula, South AfricaBiodiversity & Conservation, 5
Joshua Ginsburg (2002)
The Application of IUCN Red List Criteria at Regional Levels
O. Sala, F. Chapin, J. Armesto, Eric Berlow, J. Bloomfield, R. Dirzo, Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald, L. Huenneke, R. Jackson, A. Kinzig, R. Leemans, D. Lodge, H. Mooney, M. Oesterheld, N. Poff, M. Sykes, B. Walker, M. Walker, D. Wall (2000)
Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.Science, 287 5459
D. White, P. Minotti, Mary Barczak, J. Sifneos, K. Freemark, M. Santelmann, C. Steinitz, A. Kiester, E. Preston (1997)
Assessing Risks to Biodiversity from Future Landscape ChangeConservation Biology, 11
D. Richardson, B. Wilgen, Steven Higgins, T. Trinder-Smith, R. Cowling, D. McKell (1996)
Current and future threats to plant biodiversity on the Cape Peninsula, South AfricaBiodiversity & Conservation, 5
R. Cowlinga, R. Presseyb, M. Rougetc, A. Lombarda (2003)
A conservation plan for a global biodiversity hotspot — the Cape Floristic Region , South Africa
P. Halpin (1997)
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL‐AREA PROTECTION: MANAGEMENT RESPONSES AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONSEcological Applications, 7
P. Opdam, D. Wascher (2004)
Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservationBiological Conservation, 117
Opdam Opdam, Wascher Wascher (2004)
Climate change meets habitat fragmentationBiological Conservation, 117
A. Rebelo, W. Siegfried (1992)
Where Should Nature Reserves Be Located in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa? Models for the Spatial Configuration of a Reserve Network Aimed at Maximizing the Protection of Floral DiversityConservation Biology, 6
D. Wilcove, D. Rothstein, J. Dubow, A. Phillips, E. Losos (1998)
QUANTIFYING THREATS TO IMPERILED SPECIES IN THE UNITED STATESBioScience, 48
H. Akçakaya, S. Ferson, M. Burgman, D. Keith, G. Mace, C. Todd (2000)
Making Consistent IUCN Classifications under UncertaintyConservation Biology, 14
B. Czech, P. Krausman (1997)
Distribution and Causation of Species Endangerment in the United StatesScience, 277
C. Pyke, S. Andelman, G. Midgley (2005)
Identifying priority areas for bioclimatic representation under climate change: a case study for Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa.Biological Conservation, 125
A Rebelo (1992)
RED DATA BOOK SPECIES IN THE CAPE FLORISTIC REGION: THREATS, PRIORITIES AND TARGET SPECIESTransactions of The Royal Society of South Africa, 48
Trinder‐Smith Trinder‐Smith, Cowling Cowling, Linder Linder (1996)
Profiling a besieged floraBiodiversity and Conservation, 5
M. Brooks, C. D’Antonio, D. Richardson, J. Grace, J. Keeley, J. Ditomaso, R. Hobbs, M. Pellant, D. Pyke (2004)
Effects of Invasive Alien Plants on Fire Regimes, 54
P. Goldblatt, J. Manning (2002)
Plant Diversity of the Cape Region of Southern AfricaAnnals of the Missouri Botanical Garden, 89
L. Hannah, G. Midgley, G. Hughes, B. Bomhard (2005)
The View from the Cape: Extinction Risk, Protected Areas, and Climate Change, 55
N. Myers, R. Mittermeier, C. Mittermeier, G. Fonseca, J. Kent (2000)
Biodiversity hotspots for conservation prioritiesNature, 403
Hughes Hughes (2000)
Biological consequences of global warmingTrends in Ecology and Evolution, 15
Halpin Halpin (1997)
Global climate change and natural‐area protectionEcological Applications, 7
Pearson Pearson, Dawson Dawson, Liu Liu (2004)
Modelling species distributions in BritainEcography, 27
A. Lombard, R. Cowling, R. Pressey, A. Rebelo (2003)
Effectiveness of land classes as surrogates for species in conservation planning for the Cape Floristic RegionBiological Conservation, 112
L. Hannah, G. Midgley, T. Lovejoy, W. Bond, M. Bush, J. Lovett, D. Scott, F. Woodward (2002)
Conservation of Biodiversity in a Changing ClimateConservation Biology, 16
Harcourt Harcourt, Parks Parks (2003)
Threatened primates experience high human densitiesBiological Conservation, 109
M. Rouget, D. Richardson, R. Cowling (2003)
The current configuration of protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa—reservation bias and representation of biodiversity patterns and processesBiological Conservation, 112
L. Manne, S. Pimm (2001)
Beyond eight forms of rarity: which species are threatened and which will be next?Animal Conservation, 4
A. Latimer, J. Silander, A. Gelfand, A. Rebelo, D. Richardson (2004)
Quantifying threats to biodiversity from invasive alien plants and other factors: a case study from the Cape Floristic RegionSouth African Journal of Science, 100
(2000)
Cape Action Plan for the Environment: A Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan for the Cape Floral Kingdom . WWF South Africa, Stellenbosch
M. Rouget, R. Cowling, R. Pressey, D. Richardson (2003)
Identifying spatial components of ecological and evolutionary processes for regional conservation planning in the Cape Floristic Region, South AfricaDiversity and Distributions, 9
(2005)
Guidelines for Using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria
A. Harcourt, S. Parks (2003)
Threatened primates experience high human densities: adding an index of threat to the IUCN Red List criteriaBiological Conservation, 109
W. Thuiller, M. Araújo, S. Lavorel (2003)
Generalized models vs. classification tree analysis: Predicting spatial distributions of plant species at different scales, 14
G. Midgley, L. Hannah, D. Millar, M. Rutherford, Powrie Lw (2002)
Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspotGlobal Ecology and Biogeography, 11
M. Rouget, D. Richardson, R. Cowling, J. Lloyd, A. Lombard (2003)
Current patterns of habitat transformation and future threats to biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems of the Cape Floristic Region, South AfricaBiological Conservation, 112
Manne Manne, Pimm Pimm (2001)
Beyond eight forms of rarityAnimal Conservation, 4
C. Margules, R. Pressey (2000)
Systematic conservation planningNature, 405
John Lamoreux, H. Akçakaya, L. Bennun, N. Collar, L. Boitani, D. Brackett, Amie Bräutigam, T. Brooks, G. Fonseca, R. Mittermeier, A. Rylands, U. Gärdenfors, C. Hilton‐Taylor, G. Mace, B. Stein, S. Stuart (2003)
Value of the IUCN Red ListTrends in Ecology and Evolution, 18
(2000)
Invasive alien organisms and global change: a South African perspective. In: Invasive Species in a Changing World (Mooney HA
L. Hannah, G. Midgley, D. Millar (2002)
Climate change‐integrated conservation strategiesGlobal Ecology and Biogeography, 11
A. Hampe (2004)
Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hideGlobal Ecology and Biogeography, 13
J. Pearce, S. Ferrier (2000)
An evaluation of alternative algorithms for fitting species distribution models using logistic regressionEcological Modelling, 128
G. Midgleya, L. Hannahb, D. Millara, W. Thuillerc, A. Boothd (2003)
Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region
Rebelo Rebelo (1992)
Red data book species in the Cape Floristic RegionTransactions of the Royal Society of South Africa, 48
H. Possingham, S. Andelman, M. Burgman, R. Medellín, L. Master, D. Keith (2002)
Limits to the use of threatened species listsTrends in Ecology and Evolution, 17
Richard Pearson, Terence Dawson (2003)
Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12
M. Burgman (2002)
Are listed threatened plant species actually at riskAustralian Journal of Botany, 50
(1997)
Fynbos. In: Vegetation of Southern Africa (Cowling RM, Richardson DM
W. Stock, G. Midgley (1995)
Ecosystem Response to Elevated CO2: Nutrient Availability and Nutrient Cycling
W. Thuiller, M. Araújo, R. Pearson, R. Whittaker, L. Brotóns, S. Lavorel (2004)
Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction riskNature, 430
Hampe Hampe (2004)
Bioclimate envelope modelsGlobal Ecology and Biogeography, 13
K. Gaston, T. Blackburn, K. Goldewijk (2003)
Habitat conversion and global avian biodiversity lossProceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 270
J. Mccarty (2001)
Ecological Consequences of Recent Climate ChangeConservation Biology, 15
(2001)
IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1 IUCN Species Survival Commission, IUCN, Gland and Cam-bridge
(1999)
CAPE project: the mapping of threats to biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region with the aid of remote sensing and geographic information systems . Report GW/A1999/54
G L O B A L C H A N G E I M PA C T S O N R E D L I S T S
M. E, L. H (2004)
Would climate change drive species out of reserves ? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods
T. Rebelo, Colin Paterson-Jones, N. Page (1995)
Sasol proteas: A field guide to the proteas of southern Africa
M. Davis, R. Shaw (2001)
Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change.Science, 292 5517
R. Pressey, R. Cowling, M. Rouget (2003)
Formulating conservation targets for biodiversity pattern and process in the Cape Floristic Region, South AfricaBiological Conservation, 112
L. Hughes (2000)
Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?Trends in ecology & evolution, 15 2
(2004)
Can South African Proteaceae keep up with climate change? In: Southern Temperate Ecosystems and Biota: Contributions towards a Global Synthesis
Paul Williams, L. Hannah, S. Andelman, G. Midgley, M. Araújo, G. Hughes, L. Manne, E. Martínez‐Meyer, R. Pearson (2005)
Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum‐Dispersal Corridors for the Cape ProteaceaeConservation Biology, 19
R. Pearson, T. Dawson, Canran Liu (2004)
Modelling species distributions in Britain: a hierarchical integration of climate and land-cover dataEcography, 27
Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche‐based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2–16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low‐lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.
Global Change Biology – Wiley
Published: Sep 1, 2005
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.