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Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics

Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population... Aim  The study and prediction of species–environment relationships is currently mainly based on species distribution models. These purely correlative models neglect spatial population dynamics and assume that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment. This causes biased estimates of species niches and handicaps forecasts of range dynamics under environmental change. Here we aim to develop an approach that statistically estimates process‐based models of range dynamics from data on species distributions and permits a more comprehensive quantification of forecast uncertainties. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Global Ecology and Biogeography Wiley

Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics

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References (75)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
1466-822X
eISSN
1466-8238
DOI
10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00663.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Aim  The study and prediction of species–environment relationships is currently mainly based on species distribution models. These purely correlative models neglect spatial population dynamics and assume that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment. This causes biased estimates of species niches and handicaps forecasts of range dynamics under environmental change. Here we aim to develop an approach that statistically estimates process‐based models of range dynamics from data on species distributions and permits a more comprehensive quantification of forecast uncertainties.

Journal

Global Ecology and BiogeographyWiley

Published: Feb 1, 2012

Keywords: ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;

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