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In parts of the world such as the Pacific Islands, Australia, and New Zealand, introduced vertebrate predators have caused the demise of indigenous mammal and bird species. A number of releases for reestablishment of these mammal species in mainland Australia have failed because predators extirpated the new populations. The nature of the decline of both extant populations and reintroduced colonies provides information on the dynamics of predation. Predator‐prey theory suggests that the effects of predation are usually inversely dependent on density (depensatory) when the prey are not the primary food supply of exotic predators. Thus, such predators can cause extinction of endemic prey species. Three types of evidence can be deduced from the predator‐prey interactions that allow predictions for conservation: (1) whether per capita rates of change for prey increase or decrease with declining prey densities, (2) whether predation is depensatory or density‐dependent, and (3) the overall magnitude of predation. If this magnitude is too high for coexistence, then the degree of predator removal required can be predicted. If the magnitude of predation is sufficiently low, then the threshold density of prey that management must achieve to allow predator and prey to coexist can also be predicted. We analyzed published reports of both declining populations and reintroduced colonies of endangered marsupial populations in Australia. The observed predation curves conformed to the predictions of predator‐prey theory. Some, such as the black‐footed rock‐wallaby (Petrogale lateralis), were classic alternate prey and were vulnerable below a threshold population size. Others, such as the brush‐tailed bettong (Bettongia penicillata), have a refuge at low numbers and thus offer the best chance for reintroduction. Our predictions suggest a protocol for an experimental management program for the conservation of sensitive prey species: (1) determination of net rates of change of prey with declining population, (2) improvement of survivorship through habitat manipulation, (3) improvement of survivorship through predator removal, (4) determination of the threshold density above which reintroductions can succeed, and (5) manipulations to change interactions from Type II to Type III. The task in the future is to determine how to change the vulnerability of the prey so that they can have a refuge at low numbers. Predicción de los Efectos de la Depredación en la Conservación de una Presa en Peligro de Extinción En algunas partes del mundo como son las Islas del Pacífico, Australia y Nueva Zelandia, los veretebrados depredadores introducidos han ocasionado la desaparición de especies indígenas de mamíferos y aves. Un gran número de liberaciones para el restablecimiento de estas especies de mamíferos en tierras continentales de Australia han fracasado debido a que los depredadores han extirpado las poblaciones nuevas. La naturaleza de la declinación tanto de las poblaciones existentes como de las colonias reintroducidas provee información de las dinámicas de la depredación. La teoría sobre depredador‐presa sugiere que los efectos de la depredación son usualmente inversamente densodependientes (depensatorios) cuando las presas no son el alimento principal de los depredadores exóticos. Por lo tanto, estos depredadores pueden causar la extinción de especies de presas endémicas. Existen tres tipos de evidencia que pueden ser deducidas de las interacciones depredador‐presa y que permiten predicciones para la conservación: 1) que las tasas de cambio per cápita de presas incremente o disminuya con la declinación de las densidades de presas, 2) que la depredación sea depensatoria o densodependiente, y 3) la magnitude total de la depredación. Si la magnitud es muy alta para la coexistencia, entonces el grado de remoción del depredador requerido puede ser predecido. Si la magnitud de la depredación es suficientemente baja, entonces la densidad umbral de la presa que debe ser alcanzado mediante manejo y que permita al depredador y la presa coexistir tambien puede ser predecido. Analizamos reportes publicados tanto de declinaciones de poblaciones como de colonias reintroducidas de poblaciones de marsupiales en peligro de extinción en Australia. Las curvas de depredación observadas se conformaron a la teoría de depredador‐presa. Albunas (i.e. el ualaby, Petrogale lateralis) fue una clasica presa alternativa y fue vulnerable por debajo del tamaño poblacional umbral. Otras (i.e. Bettongia penicillata) tiene un refugio de números bajos y ofrece la mejor de las opciones para reintroducciones. Nuestras predicciones sugieren un protocolo para un programa de manejo experimental para la conservación de especies de presas sensitivas: 1) determinación de tasas netas de cambio de presa con población en declive, 2) mejora de la supervivencia mediante la manipualción del hábitat, 3) mejora en la supervivencia mediante remoción de depredadores, 4) determinación de la densidad umbral sobre la cual las reintroducciones podrían ser satisfactorias, y 5) manipulaciones para cambiar interacciones de tipo II y III. La tarea en el futuro será la de identificar el como cambiar la vulnerabilidad de la presa, de tal forma que puedan obtener refugio aún con números bajos.
Conservation Biology – Wiley
Published: Jun 17, 1998
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