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Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior *

Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior * Prior literature observes that information uncertainty exacerbates investor underreaction behavior. In this paper, I investigate whether, as professional investment intermediaries, sell‐side analysts suffer more behavioral biases in cases of greater information uncertainty. I show that greater information uncertainty predicts more positive (negative) forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good (bad) news, which corroborates previous findings on the post‐analyst‐revision drift. The opposite effects of information uncertainty on forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good versus bad news support the analyst underreaction hypothesis and are inconsistent with analyst forecast rationality or optimism suggested in prior literature. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Contemporary Accounting Research Wiley

Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior *

Contemporary Accounting Research , Volume 23 (2) – Jun 1, 2006

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References (41)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
2006 Canadian Academic Accounting Association
ISSN
0823-9150
eISSN
1911-3846
DOI
10.1506/92CB-P8G9-2A31-PV0R
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Prior literature observes that information uncertainty exacerbates investor underreaction behavior. In this paper, I investigate whether, as professional investment intermediaries, sell‐side analysts suffer more behavioral biases in cases of greater information uncertainty. I show that greater information uncertainty predicts more positive (negative) forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good (bad) news, which corroborates previous findings on the post‐analyst‐revision drift. The opposite effects of information uncertainty on forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good versus bad news support the analyst underreaction hypothesis and are inconsistent with analyst forecast rationality or optimism suggested in prior literature.

Journal

Contemporary Accounting ResearchWiley

Published: Jun 1, 2006

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