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- Publisher
- Springer Journals
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2009 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
- Subject
- Social Sciences; Demography; Sociology, general; Human Geography; Population Economics; Public Finance; Methodology of the Social Sciences
- ISSN
- 0168-6577
- eISSN
- 1572-9885
- DOI
- 10.1007/s10680-009-9182-1
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.
Journal
European Journal of Population / Revue europ_enne de D_mographie – Springer Journals
Published: Apr 22, 2009