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Regression and model-building in conservation biology, biogeography and ecology: The distinction between – and reconciliation of – ‘predictive’ and ‘explanatory’ models

Regression and model-building in conservation biology, biogeography and ecology: The distinction... In many large-scale conservation or ecological problems where experiments are intractable or unethical, regression methods are used to attempt to gauge the impact of a set of nominally independent variables (X) upon a dependent variable (Y). Workers often want to assert that a given X has a major influence on Y, and so, by using this indirection to infer a probable causal relationship. There are two difficulties apart from the demonstrability issue itself: (1) multiple regression is plagued by collinear relationships in X; and (2) any regression is designed to produce a function that in some way minimizes the overall difference between the observed and ‘predicted’ Ys, which does not necessarily equate to determining probable influence in a multivariate setting. Problem (1) may be explored by comparing two avenues, one in which a single ‘best’ regression model is sought and the other where all possible regression models are considered contemporaneously. It is suggested that if the two approaches do not agree upon which of the independent variables are likely to be ‘significant’, then the deductions must be subject to doubt. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Biodiversity and Conservation Springer Journals

Regression and model-building in conservation biology, biogeography and ecology: The distinction between – and reconciliation of – ‘predictive’ and ‘explanatory’ models

Mac Nally, Ralph
Biodiversity and Conservation , Volume 9 (5) – Oct 1, 2004
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17 pages

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References (44)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Life Sciences; Evolutionary Biology; Tree Biology; Plant Sciences
ISSN
0960-3115
eISSN
1572-9710
DOI
10.1023/A:1008985925162
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In many large-scale conservation or ecological problems where experiments are intractable or unethical, regression methods are used to attempt to gauge the impact of a set of nominally independent variables (X) upon a dependent variable (Y). Workers often want to assert that a given X has a major influence on Y, and so, by using this indirection to infer a probable causal relationship. There are two difficulties apart from the demonstrability issue itself: (1) multiple regression is plagued by collinear relationships in X; and (2) any regression is designed to produce a function that in some way minimizes the overall difference between the observed and ‘predicted’ Ys, which does not necessarily equate to determining probable influence in a multivariate setting. Problem (1) may be explored by comparing two avenues, one in which a single ‘best’ regression model is sought and the other where all possible regression models are considered contemporaneously. It is suggested that if the two approaches do not agree upon which of the independent variables are likely to be ‘significant’, then the deductions must be subject to doubt.

Journal

Biodiversity and Conservation – Springer Journals

Published: Oct 1, 2004

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