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Modeling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model

Modeling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth... In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Tersvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Financial Econometrics Oxford University Press

Modeling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model

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Publisher
Oxford University Press
Copyright
The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org.
Subject
Article
ISSN
1479-8409
eISSN
1479-8417
DOI
10.1093/jjfinec/nbp013
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Tersvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Journal

Journal of Financial EconometricsOxford University Press

Published: Sep 8, 2009

Keywords: JEL Classification C12 C32 C51 C52 G1

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