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Copula-based risk evaluation of hydrological droughts in the East River basin, China

Copula-based risk evaluation of hydrological droughts in the East River basin, China Probabilistic characteristics of hydrological droughts in a basin are closely related to the variability and availability of water resources of the basin. The East River basin in China is the main source for water supply for mega cities in the Pearl River Delta and cities in the vicinity of the Delta, such as Hong Kong. The water supply is subject to the vagaries of weather and water resources in the basin exhibit probabilistic characteristics. Using daily streamflow data for a period of 1975–2009 from 4 hydrological stations in the East River basin, this study attempts to determine probabilistic characteristics of hydrological droughts using copula functions. The bivariate quantile curves of the secondary return periods for hydrological drought of all the hydrological stations have been built and the results a higher risk of hydrological droughts in the upper East River basin. Furthermore, water resources should be managed by considering the entire East River basin in order to sustain the regional socio-economic development, and the extreme value copula has been used to describe the extreme drought events in the East River basin. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Springer Journals

Copula-based risk evaluation of hydrological droughts in the East River basin, China

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References (44)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Subject
Environment; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Earth Sciences, general; Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Computational Intelligence; Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution
ISSN
1436-3240
eISSN
1436-3259
DOI
10.1007/s00477-012-0675-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Probabilistic characteristics of hydrological droughts in a basin are closely related to the variability and availability of water resources of the basin. The East River basin in China is the main source for water supply for mega cities in the Pearl River Delta and cities in the vicinity of the Delta, such as Hong Kong. The water supply is subject to the vagaries of weather and water resources in the basin exhibit probabilistic characteristics. Using daily streamflow data for a period of 1975–2009 from 4 hydrological stations in the East River basin, this study attempts to determine probabilistic characteristics of hydrological droughts using copula functions. The bivariate quantile curves of the secondary return periods for hydrological drought of all the hydrological stations have been built and the results a higher risk of hydrological droughts in the upper East River basin. Furthermore, water resources should be managed by considering the entire East River basin in order to sustain the regional socio-economic development, and the extreme value copula has been used to describe the extreme drought events in the East River basin.

Journal

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk AssessmentSpringer Journals

Published: Dec 14, 2012

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