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- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Copyright
- Copyright The Society for Financial Studies 2002
- ISSN
- 0893-9454
- eISSN
- 1465-7368
- DOI
- 10.1093/rfs/15.3.751
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
Stock market returns are significantly correlated with inflation and money growth. The impact of real macroeconomic variables on aggregate equity returns has been difficult to establish, perhaps because their effects are neither linear nor time invariant. We estimate a GARCH model of daily equity returns, where realized returns and their conditional volatility depend on 17 macro series’ announcements. We find six candidates for priced factors: three nominal (CPI, PPI, and a Monetary Aggregate) and three real (Balance of Trade, Employment Report, and Housing Starts). Popular measures of overall economic activity, such as Industrial Production or GNP are not represented.
Journal
The Review of Financial Studies – Oxford University Press
Published: Apr 16, 2002