Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
K. Nixon, T. Ramamoorthy, R. Bye, A. Lot, J. Fa (1993)
The genus Quercus in Mexico.
C Sáenz-Romero, R Guzmán-Reyna, GE Rehfeldt (2006)
Altitudinal genetic variation among Pinus oocarpa populations in Michoacán, México; implications for seed zoning, conservation of forest genetic resources, tree breeding and global warmingFor Ecol Manag, 229
M. Hutchinson (1998)
Interpolation of Rainfall Data with Thin Plate Smoothing Splines - Part I: Two Dimensional Smoothing of Data with Short Range Correlation
GE Rehfeldt, DE Ferguson, NL Crookston (2009)
Aspen, climate, and sudden decline in western USAFor Ecol Manag, 258
A. Peterson, M. Ortega-Huerta, J. Bartley, V. Sánchez‐Cordero, Jorge Soberón, Robert Buddemeier, David Stockwell (2002)
Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenariosNature, 416
(2000)
Emissions scenarios; summary for policymakers
C. Sáenz-Romero, A. Snively, R. Lindig-Cisneros (2003)
Conservation and Restoration of Pine Forest Genetic Resources in MéxicoSilvae Genetica, 52
G. Rehfeldt (2006)
A spline model of climate for the Western United States, 165
(2004)
ANUSPLIN version 4.3 user guide. Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra, 54 pp
Noreen Beg, J. Morlot, O. Davidson, Yaw Afrane-Okesse, Lwazikazi Tyani, F. Denton, Y. Sokona, J. Thomas, E. Rovere, J. Parikh, K. Parikh, Atiq Rahman (2002)
Linkages between climate change and sustainable developmentClimate Policy, 2
W. T. (2006)
Use of response functions in selecting lodgepole pine populations for future climates
M. Hutchinson (2002)
Interpolation of Rainfall Data with Thin Plate Smoothing Splines - Part II: Analysis of Topographic Dependence
G. Rehfeldt, C. Ying, D. Spittlehouse, D. Hamilton (1999)
GENETIC RESPONSES TO CLIMATE IN PINUS CONTORTA: NICHE BREADTH, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND REFORESTATIONEcological Monographs, 69
G. Wahba (1985)
A Comparison of GCV and GML for Choosing the Smoothing Parameter in the Generalized Spline Smoothing ProblemAnnals of Statistics, 13
R. Kohn, C. Ansley, David Tharm (1991)
The Performance of Cross-Validation and Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Spline Smoothing ParametersJournal of the American Statistical Association, 86
L. Iverson, A. Prasad, S. Matthews (2008)
Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United StatesMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13
RJ Hijmans, SE Cameron, JL Parra, PG Jones, A Jarvis (2005)
Very height resolution interpolated surfaces for global land areasInt J Climatol, 25
J. Beaulieu, M. Perron, J. Bousquet (2004)
Multivariate patterns of adaptive genetic variation and seed source transfer in Picea marianaCanadian Journal of Forest Research, 34
(1994)
Database guide. EarthInfo, Boulder GLOBE Task Team (1999) The Global Land One-kilometer Base elevation (GLOBE) digital elevation model, version 1.0. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
JK Donahue, J Lopez-Upton (1996)
Geographic variation in leaf, cone and seed morphology of Pinus greggii in native forestsFor Ecol Manag, 82
Christian Foltz, Martin Wolf, S. Killich (2000)
K3 User Guide
JH Christensen, B Hewiston, A Busuioc, A Chen, X Gao, I Held, R Jones, RK Kolli, WT Kwon, R Laprise, V Magaña Rueda, L Means, CG Menémdez, J Räisänen, A Rinke, A Sarr, P Whetton (2007)
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the forth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
H Viveros-Viveros, C Sáenz-Romero, JJ Vargas-Hernández, J López-Upton, G Ramírez-Valverde, A Santacruz-Varela (2009)
Altitudinal genetic variation in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. I.: height growth, shoot phenology, and frost damage in seedlingsFor Ecol Manag, 257
M. Symington (1994)
Biological Diversity of Mexico: Origins and DistributionEconomic Botany, 48
M Zonneveld, A Jarvis, W Dvorak, G Lema, C Leibing (2009)
Climate change impact predictions on Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii populations in Mexico and Central AmericaFor Ecol Manag, 257
G. Rehfeldt, D. Ferguson, N. Crookston (2009)
Aspen, climate, and sudden decline in western USAForest Ecology and Management, 258
A. Hamann, Tongli Wang (2006)
Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia.Ecology, 87 11
O. Téllez-Valdés, Patricia Dávila-Aranda, R. Lira-Saade (2006)
The Effects of Climate Change on the Long-Term Conservation of Fagus grandifolia var. mexicana, an Important Species of the Cloud Forest in Eastern MexicoBiodiversity & Conservation, 15
EM Cué-Bär, JL Villaseñor, L Arredondo-Amezcua, G Cornejo-Tenorio, G Ibarra-Manríquez (2006)
La flora arbórea de Michoacán, MéxicoBol Soc Bot Méx, 78
WS Dvorak, JE Kietzka, JK Donahue (1996)
Three-year survival and growth of provenances of Pinus greggii in the tropics and subtropicsFor Ecol Manag, 83
(2005)
Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/joc.1276 VERY HIGH RESOLUTION INTERPOLATED CLIMATE SURFACES FOR GLOBAL LAND AREAS
R. Pachauri (2004)
Climate and humanityGlobal Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 14
(1999)
Techniques for climate variables. NRG-GIS Series 99-01
(2000)
Using ArcMap; GIS by ESRI
S. Aitken, S. Yeaman, J. Holliday, Tongli Wang, Sierra Curtis-McLane (2008)
Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populationsEvolutionary Applications, 1
A. Newton, A. Newton, T. Allnutt, T. Allnutt, W. Dvorak, R. Castillo, R. Ennos (2002)
Patterns of genetic variation in Pinus chiapensis, a threatened Mexican pine, detected by RAPD and mitochondrial DNA RFLP markersHeredity, 89
R. Castillo, S. Trujillo (2007)
Effect of inbreeding depression on outcrossing rates among populations of a tropical pine.The New phytologist, 177 2
D. Price, D. McKenney, I. Nalder, M. Hutchinson, J. Kesteven (2000)
A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate dataAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, 101
G. Rehfeldt, D. Ferguson, N. Crookston (2008)
Quantifying the abundance of co-occurring conifers along Inland Northwest (USA) climate gradients.Ecology, 89 8
G. Rehfeldt, N. Crookston, M. Warwell, J. Evans (2006)
Empirical Analyses of Plant‐Climate Relationships for the Western United StatesInternational Journal of Plant Sciences, 167
(1998)
A classification of North American biotic communities
D. McKenney, M. Hutchinson, J. Kesteven, L. Venier (2001)
Canada’s plant hardiness zones revisited using modern climate interpolation techniquesCanadian Journal of Plant Science, 81
RF Castillo, A Trujillo (2008)
The effect of inbreeding depression on outcrossing estimates in populations of a tropical pineNew Phytol, 177
Sakari Tuhkanen (1980)
Climatic parameters and indices in plant geography
M. Zonneveld, A. Jarvis, W. Dvorak, G. Lema, C. Leibing (2009)
Climate change impact predictions on Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii populations in Mexico and Central AmericaForest Ecology and Management, 257
L. Gómez-Mendoza, Laura Arriaga (2007)
Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Oak and Pine Species of MexicoConservation Biology, 21
R. Castillo, S. Argueta, C. Sáenz-Romero (2009)
Pinus chiapensis, a keystone species: Genetics, ecology, and conservationForest Ecology and Management, 257
M. Nadezda, E. Gerald, I. Elena (2006)
Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Larix Spp. and Pinus Sylvestris and Their Climatypes in SiberiaMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 11
(2005)
Altitudinal genetic variation in plant growth of Pinus pseudostrobus Lindl. in field testing
W. Dvorak, J. Kietzka, J. Donahue (1996)
Three-year survival and growth of provenances of Pinus greggii in the tropics and subtropicsForest Ecology and Management, 83
C. Sáenz-Romero, B. Tapia-Olivares (2008)
Genetic Variation in Frost Damage and Seed Zone Delineation within an Altitudinal Transect of Pinus devoniana (P. michoacana) in MexicoSilvae Genetica, 57
J. Rzedowski, L. Huerta, Elvia Esparza (1981)
Vegetación de México
E. Wilson, F. Peter (1988)
Primate Diversity and the Tropical Forest Case Studies from Brazil and Madagascar and the Importance of the Megadiversity Countries
G. Rehfeldt, W. Wykoff, C. Ying (2001)
Physiologic Plasticity, Evolution, and Impacts of a Changing Climate on Pinus ContortaClimatic Change, 50
J. McLachlan, J. Hellmann, M. Schwartz (2007)
A Framework for Debate of Assisted Migration in an Era of Climate ChangeConservation Biology, 21
Richard Alley, T. Berntsen, N.L. Bindoff, Zhenlin Chen, A. Chidthaisong, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jonathan Gregory, Gabriele Hegerl, Martin Heimann, Bruce Hewitson, Brian Hoskins, Fortunat Joos, J. Jouzel, V. Kattsov, Ulrike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno, Mario Molina, N. Nicholls, J. Overpeck, D. Qin, Graciela Raga, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Jiawen Ren, M. Rusticucci, S. Solomon, Richard Somerville, T. Stocker, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, P. Whetton, Richard Wood, D. Wratt, J. Arblaster, Guy Brasseur, J. Christensen, Kenneth Denman, D. Fahey, Piers Forster, E. Jansen, P. Jones, R. Knutti, H. Treut, Peter Lemke, G. Meehl, P. Mote, David Randall, Dáithí Stone, K. Trenberth, J. Willebrand, F. Zwiers (2007)
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
(1993)
On thin plate splines and kriging. In: Tarter ME, Lock MD (eds) Computing and science in statistics 25. University of California-Berkeley, Interface Foundation
Martin Ricker, Iliana Ramírez-Krauss, G. Ibarra‐Manríquez, E. Martínez, C. Ramos, Guadalupe González-Medellín, G. Gómez-Rodríguez, J. Palacio-Prieto, H. Hernández (2007)
Optimizing conservation of forest diversity: a country-wide approach in MexicoBiodiversity and Conservation, 16
L Hughes (2000)
Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal alreadyTrends Ecol Evol, 15
D Bates, G Wahba (1982)
Treatment of integral equations by numerical methods
M. Hutchinson, P. Gessler (1994)
Splines — more than just a smooth interpolatorGeoderma, 62
M. Parrya, C. Rosenzweigb, A. Iglesiasc, M. Livermored, G. Fischere (2004)
Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
J Beaulieu, M Perron, J Bousquet (2004)
Multivariate patterns of adaptive genetic variation and seed source transfer in black spruceCan J For Res, 34
J. Clair, G. Howe (2007)
Genetic maladaptation of coastal Douglas‐fir seedlings to future climatesGlobal Change Biology, 13
M. Davis, R. Shaw, Julie Etterson (2005)
EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATEEcology, 86
C. Sáenz-Romero, R. Guzmán-Reyna, G. Rehfeldt (2006)
Altitudinal genetic variation among Pinus oocarpa populations in Michoacán, Mexico: Implications for seed zoning, conservation, tree breeding and global warmingForest Ecology and Management, 229
H. Viveros, Cuauhtémoc Romero, J. Upton, J. Hernández (2005)
Variación genética altitudinal en el crecimiento de plantas de Pinus pseudostrobus Lindl. En campoAgrociencia, 39
Eric, ’. PJBoer, Kirsten, de, Beursl, A. Dewi, Hartkampz (2001)
Kriging and thin plate splines for mapping climate variablesInternational Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 3
F. Woodward (1987)
Climate and plant distribution
Richard Pearson, Terence Dawson (2003)
Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12
L. Breiman (2001)
Random ForestsMachine Learning, 45
H. Viveros-Viveros, C. Sáenz-Romero, J. Vargas-Hernández, J. López-Upton, G. Ramírez-Valverde, A. Santacruz-Varela (2009)
Altitudinal genetic variation in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. I: height growth, shoot phenology, and frost damage in seedlings.Forest Ecology and Management, 257
O. Téllez-Valdés, Patricia D¡Vila‐Aranda (2003)
Protected Areas and Climate Change: a Case Study of the Cacti in the Tehuacán‐Cuicatlán Biosphere Reserve, MéxicoConservation Biology, 17
R. Mountain, G. Rehfeldt (2004)
Interspecifi c and Intraspecifi c Variation in Picea engelmannii and its Congeneric Cohorts: Biosystematics, Genecology, and Climate Change, 134
NJ Rosenberg (1974)
Microclimate: the biological environment
M. Hutchinson (1995)
Interpolating Mean Rainfall Using Thin Plate Smoothing SplinesInt. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 9
G. Rehfeldt, N. Tchebakova, Ye. Parfenova, W. Wykoff, N. Kuzmina, L. Milyutin (2002)
Intraspecific responses to climate in Pinus sylvestrisGlobal Change Biology, 8
F. Ledig, J. Kitzmiller (1992)
Genetic strategies for reforestation in the face of global climate changeForest Ecology and Management, 50
J. Rzedowski, T. Ramamoorthy, R. Bye, A. Lot, J. Fa (1993)
Diversity and origins of the phanerogamic flora of Mexico.
W. Dvorak, J. Donahue, J. Vasquez (1996)
Provenance and progeny results for the tropical white pine, Pinus chiapensis, at five and eight years of ageNew Forests, 12
FT Ledig, JH Kitzmiller (1992)
Genetic strategies for reforestation in the face of global climate changeFor Ecol Manag, 50
(1982)
Computational methods for generalized cross validation with large data sets. In: Baker CTH, Miller GF (eds) Treatment of integral equations by numerical methods
RF Castillo, S Trujillo-Argueta, C Sáenz-Romero (2009)
Pinus chiapensis, a keystone species: genetics ecology, and conservationFor Ecol Manag, 257
M. Davis (1989)
Lags in vegetation response to greenhouse warmingClimatic Change, 15
W. Steffen (2008)
Working Group 1 report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment—An editorialGlobal Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 18
L. Hughes (2000)
Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?Trends in ecology & evolution, 15 2
(1993)
Computing and science in statistics 25
J. Donahue, J. Upton (1996)
Geographic variation in leaf, cone and seed morphology of Pinus greggii in navite forestsForest Ecology and Management, 82
Spatial climate models were developed for México and its periphery (southern USA, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961–1990) of average, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3,800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-half of the number of observations, and reasonable standard errors for the surfaces would be less than 1°C for temperature and 10–15% for precipitation. Monthly normals were updated for three time periods according to three General Circulation Models and three emission scenarios. On average, mean annual temperature would increase 1.5°C by year 2030, 2.3°C by year 2060 and 3.7°C by year 2090; annual precipitation would decrease −6.7% by year 2030, −9.0% by year 2060 and −18.2% by year 2090. By converting monthly means into a series of variables relevant to biology (e. g., degree-days > 5°C, aridity index), the models are directly suited for inferring plant–climate relationships and, therefore, in assessing impact of and developing programs for accommodating global warming. Programs are outlined for (a) assisting migration of four commercially important species of pine distributed in altitudinal sequence in Michoacán State (b) developing conservation programs in the floristically diverse Tehuacán Valley, and (c) perpetuating Pinus chiapensis, a threatened endemic. Climate surfaces, point or gridded climatic estimates and maps are available at http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/ .
Climatic Change – Springer Journals
Published: Nov 12, 2009
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.