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A Robust Measure of Uncertainty Importance for Use in Fault Tree System Analysis

A Robust Measure of Uncertainty Importance for Use in Fault Tree System Analysis The analysis of probabilistic fault trees often involves the investigation of events that contribute both to the frequency of the top event and to the uncertainty in this frequency. This paper provides a discussion of three measures of the contribution of an event to the total uncertainty in the top event. These measures are known as uncertainty importance measures. Two of these measures are new developments. Each of the measures is shown to have unique advantages and disadvantages. The three measures are based on, respectively, the expected reduction in the variance of the top‐event frequency should the uncertainty in an event be resolved, the same measure based on the log frequency, and a measure based on shifts in the quantiles of the distribution of top‐event frequency. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Risk Analysis Wiley

A Robust Measure of Uncertainty Importance for Use in Fault Tree System Analysis

Risk Analysis , Volume 10 (3) – Sep 1, 1990

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References (4)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0272-4332
eISSN
1539-6924
DOI
10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb00523.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The analysis of probabilistic fault trees often involves the investigation of events that contribute both to the frequency of the top event and to the uncertainty in this frequency. This paper provides a discussion of three measures of the contribution of an event to the total uncertainty in the top event. These measures are known as uncertainty importance measures. Two of these measures are new developments. Each of the measures is shown to have unique advantages and disadvantages. The three measures are based on, respectively, the expected reduction in the variance of the top‐event frequency should the uncertainty in an event be resolved, the same measure based on the log frequency, and a measure based on shifts in the quantiles of the distribution of top‐event frequency.

Journal

Risk AnalysisWiley

Published: Sep 1, 1990

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