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Verification of forecasts of periodic changes in the climate of Warsaw in the period 1779-2010

Verification of forecasts of periodic changes in the climate of Warsaw in the period 1779-2010 Abstract The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31 and 20 years ahead. Accurate predictions of air temperatures in Warsaw in 1980-2010 were calculated using the cycles identified by applying the sinusoidal regression method to a series of monitoring results obtained in Warsaw between 1779 and 1979. The high accuracy of these forecasts is the result of a similar progression of measured and forecast values over a number of years. The prediction of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere for example, caused by interference of long solar radiation cycles as well as variations in the concentrations of the δ 18 O oxygen isotope in the Arctic ice cores, requires a larger series of data points. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Miscellanea Geographica de Gruyter

Verification of forecasts of periodic changes in the climate of Warsaw in the period 1779-2010

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Publisher
de Gruyter
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 by the
ISSN
0867-6046
eISSN
2084-6118
DOI
10.2478/v10288-012-0025-2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31 and 20 years ahead. Accurate predictions of air temperatures in Warsaw in 1980-2010 were calculated using the cycles identified by applying the sinusoidal regression method to a series of monitoring results obtained in Warsaw between 1779 and 1979. The high accuracy of these forecasts is the result of a similar progression of measured and forecast values over a number of years. The prediction of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere for example, caused by interference of long solar radiation cycles as well as variations in the concentrations of the δ 18 O oxygen isotope in the Arctic ice cores, requires a larger series of data points.

Journal

Miscellanea Geographicade Gruyter

Published: Dec 22, 2012

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