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The Hardest Path to Reelection: Dueling Incumbent House Primaries in 2022

The Hardest Path to Reelection: Dueling Incumbent House Primaries in 2022 AbstractIn this article, we examine the six dueling incumbent U.S. House primaries in the 2022 midterm elections. Our principal aim is to answer the question: Who wins these rare but consequential contests that ensure one incumbent does not return to Congress? Contrary to the intuition that retaining more of one’s previous constituents is a considerable electoral advantage, district- and precinct-level data suggest this was not pivotal. Instead, in these four Democrat versus Democrat and two Republican versus Republican dueling incumbent primaries, explanations for winning or losing appear to hinge on other factors. For the Republican races, former President Trump’s endorsement appears to have gone a long way in influencing the outcome. In the Democratic contests, descriptive representation, ideological fit, and intra-party meddling and a scandal, played a part in determining the victor. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Forum de Gruyter

The Hardest Path to Reelection: Dueling Incumbent House Primaries in 2022

Hood, M.V.; McKee, Seth C.
The Forum , Volume 20 (3-4): 25 – Dec 1, 2022
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Publisher
de Gruyter
Copyright
© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
ISSN
1540-8884
eISSN
1540-8884
DOI
10.1515/for-2022-2062
Publisher site
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Abstract

AbstractIn this article, we examine the six dueling incumbent U.S. House primaries in the 2022 midterm elections. Our principal aim is to answer the question: Who wins these rare but consequential contests that ensure one incumbent does not return to Congress? Contrary to the intuition that retaining more of one’s previous constituents is a considerable electoral advantage, district- and precinct-level data suggest this was not pivotal. Instead, in these four Democrat versus Democrat and two Republican versus Republican dueling incumbent primaries, explanations for winning or losing appear to hinge on other factors. For the Republican races, former President Trump’s endorsement appears to have gone a long way in influencing the outcome. In the Democratic contests, descriptive representation, ideological fit, and intra-party meddling and a scandal, played a part in determining the victor.

Journal

The Forum – de Gruyter

Published: Dec 1, 2022

Keywords: redistricting; U.S. house elections; 2022 midterms

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