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Is the World Deteriorating?

Is the World Deteriorating? Global Governance 21 (2015), 9–14 THE GLOBAL FORUM Peter Tikuisis and David R. Mandel THE WORLD IS BECOMING A LESS CONFLICT-RIDDEN PLACE, AND IT HAS BEEN for decades. Wars and violent conflicts are on the decline, according to expert consensus. In particular, we note abundant evidence that suggests that the world is not deteriorating from Steven Pinker’s conclusion of a long-term general decline in global violence to Azar Gat’s analysis point- ing to a decline in war since the mid-1990s to the 2013 Human Security Report proclaiming a substantial decline in conflicts since the early 1990s. It was for that reason that a systematic analysis of world crisis data from a global leader in crisis tracking left us baffled. We analyzed all of the International Crisis Group’s monthly CrisisWatch statistics for the crises it has tracked from its inception in September 2003 to March 2014. Crisis Group’s data paint a startlingly different picture: a world that has deteriorated substantially over the past decade. How could this be? If Crisis Group was a mediocre crisis tracker, then we might grant the incongruity to incompetence. But it is well resourced, drawing on multi- ple sources including over 100 analysts across five http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations Brill

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Publisher
Brill
Copyright
Copyright © Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, The Netherlands
ISSN
1075-2846
eISSN
1942-6720
DOI
10.1163/19426720-02101002
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Global Governance 21 (2015), 9–14 THE GLOBAL FORUM Peter Tikuisis and David R. Mandel THE WORLD IS BECOMING A LESS CONFLICT-RIDDEN PLACE, AND IT HAS BEEN for decades. Wars and violent conflicts are on the decline, according to expert consensus. In particular, we note abundant evidence that suggests that the world is not deteriorating from Steven Pinker’s conclusion of a long-term general decline in global violence to Azar Gat’s analysis point- ing to a decline in war since the mid-1990s to the 2013 Human Security Report proclaiming a substantial decline in conflicts since the early 1990s. It was for that reason that a systematic analysis of world crisis data from a global leader in crisis tracking left us baffled. We analyzed all of the International Crisis Group’s monthly CrisisWatch statistics for the crises it has tracked from its inception in September 2003 to March 2014. Crisis Group’s data paint a startlingly different picture: a world that has deteriorated substantially over the past decade. How could this be? If Crisis Group was a mediocre crisis tracker, then we might grant the incongruity to incompetence. But it is well resourced, drawing on multi- ple sources including over 100 analysts across five

Journal

Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International OrganizationsBrill

Published: Aug 19, 2015

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