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I S E L N IÑO S PORADIC OR C YCLIC ?

I S E L N IÑO S PORADIC OR C YCLIC ? ▪ Abstract Is El Niño one phase of a continual, self-sustaining natural mode of the coupled ocean-atmosphere that has La Niña as the complementary phase? Or is El Niño a temporary departure from “normal” conditions “triggered” by a random disturbance such as a burst of westerly winds? A growing body of evidence—stability analyses, studies of the energetics, simulations that reproduce the statistics of sea surface temperature variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific—indicates that reality corresponds to a compromise between these two possibilities: The observed Southern Oscillation between El Niño and La Niña corresponds to a weakly damped mode that is sustained by random disturbances. This means that the predictability of El Niño is limited by the continual presence of “noise” so that forecasts should be probabilistic. The Southern Oscillation is also subject to decadal modulations. How it will be influenced by global warming is a matter of considerable uncertainty. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Annual Reviews

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Publisher
Annual Reviews
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved
Subject
Review Articles
ISSN
0084-6597
eISSN
1545-4495
DOI
10.1146/annurev.earth.31.100901.141255
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

▪ Abstract Is El Niño one phase of a continual, self-sustaining natural mode of the coupled ocean-atmosphere that has La Niña as the complementary phase? Or is El Niño a temporary departure from “normal” conditions “triggered” by a random disturbance such as a burst of westerly winds? A growing body of evidence—stability analyses, studies of the energetics, simulations that reproduce the statistics of sea surface temperature variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific—indicates that reality corresponds to a compromise between these two possibilities: The observed Southern Oscillation between El Niño and La Niña corresponds to a weakly damped mode that is sustained by random disturbances. This means that the predictability of El Niño is limited by the continual presence of “noise” so that forecasts should be probabilistic. The Southern Oscillation is also subject to decadal modulations. How it will be influenced by global warming is a matter of considerable uncertainty.

Journal

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary SciencesAnnual Reviews

Published: May 1, 2003

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