AbstractNorth Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from four ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are verified using the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) best tracks for the 2008 through 2015 seasons. The one to five day forecasts are evaluated for the 21-member National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), the 23-member UKMET ensemble, and the 51-member European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ensemble, as well as a combination of these ensembles (Multi-Model Global; MMG). Several deterministic models are also evaluated, such as the Global Forecast System (GFSdet), Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF), deterministic ECMWF (ECdet), and Geophysical Fluids Dynamical Laboratory (GFDL) models. ECdet track errors are the smallest on average at all lead times, but are not significantly different from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means. All models have a slow bias (90 to 240 km) in the along-track direction by 120 h, while there is little bias in the cross-track direction. Much of this slow bias is attributed to TCs undergoing extratropical transition (ET). All EPSs are underdispersed in the along-track direction, while the ECMWF is slightly overdispersed in the cross-track direction. The MMG and ECMWF track forecasts have more probabilistic skill than the ECdet and comparable skill to the NHC climatology-based cone forecast. TC intensity errors for the HWRF and GFDL are lower than the coarser models within the first 24 h, but are comparable to the ECdet at longer lead times. The ECMWF and MMG have comparable or better probabilistic intensity forecasts than the ECdet, while the GEFS’s weak bias limits its skill.
Weather and Forecasting – American Meteorological Society
Published: Sep 29, 2017
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