AbstractMany factors affect the extent to which forecasts inform emergency responses. In a survey based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), we asked 207 U.S. emergency managers (EMs) about (1) their past and intended future use of short-term weather forecasts and recorded weather data; (2) the perceived limitations and (3a) their attitude towards the usefulness of such weather information; (3b) their attitude towards their job and towards uncertainty; (4) perceived social norms; and (5) self-assessed numeracy. Work experience was found to be the best predictor of whether an emergency manager relied on recorded weather data and short-term weather forecasts in the past or intends to do so in the future. Among TPB variables, mainly social expectations and data attitude drive the reliance on recorded weather data and short-term forecasts. The EMs’ perception of the weather information’s limitations is related to their perceptions of what their social surroundings think. In sum, the paper sheds light on when and why EMs use weather data and forecasts and how training can be improved.
Weather, Climate, and Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Oct 13, 2017
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