Understanding a Possible Correlation between El Nino Occurrence Frequency and Global Warming

Understanding a Possible Correlation between El Nino Occurrence Frequency and Global Warming letters to the editor Understanding a Possible Correlation of this century superimposed on a centennial-scale between El Nino Occurrence Frequency variability. What may have precipitated the recent increase in and Global Warming frequency of El Nino has been addressed without reso- Initiation of an episode of the warming of the tropi- lution. El Nino is associated with a reduction in trade cal eastern Pacific surface waters and associated wind strength, so it is often assumed that an increase atmospheric circulation changes known as El Nino, in El Nino occurrence frequency should be signaled appear to be a partly random event (Trenberth 1976, by a reduction in trade winds (e.g., Latif et al. 1997). 1991), albeit modulated by several temporal cycles. Similarly, it has been suggested that an increase in These modulations include an approximately centen- global temperatures due to, for example, increases in nial-scale variability (Andersen 1992; Lau and Sheu C0 concentrations, should produce an increase in 1991) with an interval of more than 30 years during trade wind strength (Trenberth and Hoar 1996). The which El Nino occurrence is rare. Thus, both in the resulting increased oceanic coupling should, through late nineteenth century and recently, in the late http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

Understanding a Possible Correlation between El Nino Occurrence Frequency and Global Warming

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/1520-0477-80.2.297
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

letters to the editor Understanding a Possible Correlation of this century superimposed on a centennial-scale between El Nino Occurrence Frequency variability. What may have precipitated the recent increase in and Global Warming frequency of El Nino has been addressed without reso- Initiation of an episode of the warming of the tropi- lution. El Nino is associated with a reduction in trade cal eastern Pacific surface waters and associated wind strength, so it is often assumed that an increase atmospheric circulation changes known as El Nino, in El Nino occurrence frequency should be signaled appear to be a partly random event (Trenberth 1976, by a reduction in trade winds (e.g., Latif et al. 1997). 1991), albeit modulated by several temporal cycles. Similarly, it has been suggested that an increase in These modulations include an approximately centen- global temperatures due to, for example, increases in nial-scale variability (Andersen 1992; Lau and Sheu C0 concentrations, should produce an increase in 1991) with an interval of more than 30 years during trade wind strength (Trenberth and Hoar 1996). The which El Nino occurrence is rare. Thus, both in the resulting increased oceanic coupling should, through late nineteenth century and recently, in the late

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Feb 1, 1999

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