Tropical ocean contributions to California’s surprisingly dry El Niño of 2015-16.

Tropical ocean contributions to California’s surprisingly dry El Niño of 2015-16. AbstractThe major El Niño of 2015-16 brought significantly less precipitation to California than previous events of comparable strength, much to the disappointment of residents suffering through the state’s fourth consecutive year of severe drought. Here, California’s weak precipitation in 2015-16 relative to previous major El Niños is investigated within a 40-member ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations run with historical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and constant radiative forcing. The simulations reveal significant differences in both California precipitation and the large-scale atmospheric circulation between 2015-16 and previous strong El Niños, which are similar to (albeit weaker than) the differences found in observations. Principal component analysis indicates that these ensemble-mean differences were likely related to a pattern of tropical SST variability with a strong signal in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, and a weaker signal in the eastern equatorial Pacific and subtropical north Atlantic. This SST pattern was missed by the majority of forecast models, which could partly explain their erroneous predictions of above-average precipitation in California in 2015-16. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Tropical ocean contributions to California’s surprisingly dry El Niño of 2015-16.

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0177.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe major El Niño of 2015-16 brought significantly less precipitation to California than previous events of comparable strength, much to the disappointment of residents suffering through the state’s fourth consecutive year of severe drought. Here, California’s weak precipitation in 2015-16 relative to previous major El Niños is investigated within a 40-member ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations run with historical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and constant radiative forcing. The simulations reveal significant differences in both California precipitation and the large-scale atmospheric circulation between 2015-16 and previous strong El Niños, which are similar to (albeit weaker than) the differences found in observations. Principal component analysis indicates that these ensemble-mean differences were likely related to a pattern of tropical SST variability with a strong signal in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, and a weaker signal in the eastern equatorial Pacific and subtropical north Atlantic. This SST pattern was missed by the majority of forecast models, which could partly explain their erroneous predictions of above-average precipitation in California in 2015-16.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 22, 2017

References

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