Trends in Track Forecasting for Tropical Cyclones Threatening the United States, 19702001

Trends in Track Forecasting for Tropical Cyclones Threatening the United States, 19702001 Previous studies have identified statistically significant long-term improvements in forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. Recently, however, attention has been focused on the forecast accuracy of landfall location and timing, and the long-term improvement trends for this relatively small sample of forecasts were mixed. These results may lead some to conclude that the accuracy of NHC forecasts close to the United States has not improved over time.A statistically robust dataset can be obtained by considering landfall-threatening storms, defined as one for which tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect for some portion of the continental United States. In this study, long-term trends in accuracy are determined for NHC forecasts issued during these periods of threat and compared to trends for the Atlantic basin overall. A second set of trends are determined for forecasts verifying during the periods of threat.The analysis shows that NHC forecasts for land-threatening tropical cyclones are improving. These improvement trends are statistically significant, although the improvement rates for the land-threatening storms are smaller than those for the basin overall. Over the period 19702001, forecasts issued during the watch/warning stage improved at annual average rates of 0.7, 1.6, and 1.9 at 24,48, and 72 h, respectively. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

Trends in Track Forecasting for Tropical Cyclones Threatening the United States, 19702001

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/trends-in-track-forecasting-for-tropical-cyclones-threatening-the-8OT2MV81yI
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1197
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Previous studies have identified statistically significant long-term improvements in forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. Recently, however, attention has been focused on the forecast accuracy of landfall location and timing, and the long-term improvement trends for this relatively small sample of forecasts were mixed. These results may lead some to conclude that the accuracy of NHC forecasts close to the United States has not improved over time.A statistically robust dataset can be obtained by considering landfall-threatening storms, defined as one for which tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect for some portion of the continental United States. In this study, long-term trends in accuracy are determined for NHC forecasts issued during these periods of threat and compared to trends for the Atlantic basin overall. A second set of trends are determined for forecasts verifying during the periods of threat.The analysis shows that NHC forecasts for land-threatening tropical cyclones are improving. These improvement trends are statistically significant, although the improvement rates for the land-threatening storms are smaller than those for the basin overall. Over the period 19702001, forecasts issued during the watch/warning stage improved at annual average rates of 0.7, 1.6, and 1.9 at 24,48, and 72 h, respectively.

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 30, 2003

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off