Toward an Operational Water Cycle Prediction System for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River

Toward an Operational Water Cycle Prediction System for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River AbstractIn this time of a changing climate, it is important to know whether lake levels will rise, potentially causing flooding, or river flows will dry up during abnormally dry weather. The Great Lakes region is the largest freshwater lake system in the world. Moreover, agriculture, industry, commerce, and shipping are active in this densely populated region. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) recently implemented the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS) over the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River watershed (WCPS-GLS version 1.0) following a decade of research and development. WCPS, a network of linked models, simulates the complete water cycle, following water as it moves from the atmosphere to the surface, through the river network and into lakes, and back to the atmosphere. Information concerning the water cycle is passed between the models. WCPS is the first short-to-medium-range prediction system of the complete water cycle to be run on an operational basis anywhere. It currently produces two forecasts per day for the next three days. WCPS generally provides reliable results throughout the length of the forecast. The transmission of errors between the component models is reduced by data assimilation. Interactions between the environmental compartments are active. This ongoing intercommunication is valuable for extreme events such as rapid ice freeze-up and flooding or drought caused by abnormal amounts of precipitation. Products include precipitation; evaporation; lake water levels, temperatures, and currents; ice cover; and river flows. These products are of interest to a wide variety of governmental, commercial, and industrial groups, as well as the public. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
eISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0155.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractIn this time of a changing climate, it is important to know whether lake levels will rise, potentially causing flooding, or river flows will dry up during abnormally dry weather. The Great Lakes region is the largest freshwater lake system in the world. Moreover, agriculture, industry, commerce, and shipping are active in this densely populated region. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) recently implemented the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS) over the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River watershed (WCPS-GLS version 1.0) following a decade of research and development. WCPS, a network of linked models, simulates the complete water cycle, following water as it moves from the atmosphere to the surface, through the river network and into lakes, and back to the atmosphere. Information concerning the water cycle is passed between the models. WCPS is the first short-to-medium-range prediction system of the complete water cycle to be run on an operational basis anywhere. It currently produces two forecasts per day for the next three days. WCPS generally provides reliable results throughout the length of the forecast. The transmission of errors between the component models is reduced by data assimilation. Interactions between the environmental compartments are active. This ongoing intercommunication is valuable for extreme events such as rapid ice freeze-up and flooding or drought caused by abnormal amounts of precipitation. Products include precipitation; evaporation; lake water levels, temperatures, and currents; ice cover; and river flows. These products are of interest to a wide variety of governmental, commercial, and industrial groups, as well as the public.

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Mar 11, 2018

References

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