Tilting the Odds in Maize Yields: How Climate Information Can Help Manage risks

Tilting the Odds in Maize Yields: How Climate Information Can Help Manage risks It goes without saying that most crops are sensitive to variations in weather and climate. When the influence of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation on rainfall for several regions of the world was first discovered climate scientists assumed that this information would be of immediate use by farmers, the general agricultural community, and other communities. One of the reasons this has not happened as quickly and universally as expected is that many users are not able to relate the climate information to their practices. In this paper we illustrate an application of climate information as it relates to the risk of a poor crop yield. Specifically we show how the odds of a good, versus poor, maize yield are tilted by variation in the seasonal climate. In addition, we illustrate strategies that could allow farmers a way to manage the climate risk associated with these shifts. We illustrate maize-yield sensitivity to seasonal climate by simulating the influence of relatively small variations in dry spell duration on maize yields in Uruguay.We then show that the observed median dry spell durations in the maize-growing season of Uruguay during El Nio and La Nina episodes are in the range where maize yields are most sensitive to dry spell length. Variations in maize yields developed from the crop model are consistent with observed mean yields and with observed yields during El Nio and La Nina conditions. Finally, we discuss risk management strategies based on cultivar and planting dates. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

Tilting the Odds in Maize Yields: How Climate Information Can Help Manage risks

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/tilting-the-odds-in-maize-yields-how-climate-information-can-help-jaBrSVBy7r
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/2008BAMS2429.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

It goes without saying that most crops are sensitive to variations in weather and climate. When the influence of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation on rainfall for several regions of the world was first discovered climate scientists assumed that this information would be of immediate use by farmers, the general agricultural community, and other communities. One of the reasons this has not happened as quickly and universally as expected is that many users are not able to relate the climate information to their practices. In this paper we illustrate an application of climate information as it relates to the risk of a poor crop yield. Specifically we show how the odds of a good, versus poor, maize yield are tilted by variation in the seasonal climate. In addition, we illustrate strategies that could allow farmers a way to manage the climate risk associated with these shifts. We illustrate maize-yield sensitivity to seasonal climate by simulating the influence of relatively small variations in dry spell duration on maize yields in Uruguay.We then show that the observed median dry spell durations in the maize-growing season of Uruguay during El Nio and La Nina episodes are in the range where maize yields are most sensitive to dry spell length. Variations in maize yields developed from the crop model are consistent with observed mean yields and with observed yields during El Nio and La Nina conditions. Finally, we discuss risk management strategies based on cultivar and planting dates.

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Feb 1, 2009

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off