AbstractIn this paper, we study the relationship between the thermal configuration of the Bay of Bengal (BOB)–Tibetan Plateau (TP) region and the precipitation anomaly in Yunnan in May using ERA-Interim reanalysis data and precipitation data for May from 125 meteorological stations across Yunnan for 1979–2014. Results from the analysis indicate that the interannual variability of May precipitation in Yunnan is significantly modulated by the BOB–TP thermal configuration. Model runs with a linear baroclinic model suggest physical consistency. The thermal conditions over the BOB mainly impact the May precipitation anomaly in Yunnan via changes in water vapor transport from the eastern BOB northeastward to southwestern Yunnan. The second factor influencing precipitation anomalies relates to the characteristics and variability of cold air transport from the TP to northeastern Yunnan. When the BOB (the TP) is occupied by positive (negative) diabatic heating, thermal gradient with a warmer (colder) center over the BOB and a colder (warmer) center over the TP is established, and more (less)-than-normal precipitation in Yunnan will occur in May. This relationship can persist from the April to the current May to some extent; therefore, the BOB–TP thermal configuration in April could be used to forecast May precipitation in Yunnan.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Aug 30, 2017
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