IN INSIGHTS and INNOVATIONS The State of the Art of Seasonal Prediction Outcomes and Recommendations from the First Worl d Climate Research Program Workshop on Seasonal Prediction BY BEN KIRTMAN AND ANNA PIRANI ur ability to predict the seasonal variations of the pogenic forcing, or th e emergence of a critical failing Earth' s tropical climate dramatically improved in the models used to make predictions, or merely a Ofro m the early 1980s to the late 1990s. This sampling effect? Have we accounted for all of th e criti- period was bracketed by two of the largest El Nino cal interactions amon g all th e elements of th e climate events on record: the 1982-83 event, which went system (ocean-atmosphere-biosphere-cryosphere)? Are the observations adequately blended with the unrecognize d until man y month s after its onset; and the 1997-98 event, which was well monitored from models to make the best possible forecasts? its earliest stages an d predicted to a moderat e degree To gain consensus and address these concerns, by a numbe r of models several months in advance. th e First WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop1 Thi s improvement was due to the convergence of was
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Apr 1, 2009
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