The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Program on Extended-Range Prediction

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Program on Extended-Range Prediction Results from a 3 1/2-yr experimental program of extended-range integrations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model are summarized. The topics discussed includeThe evolution of extended-range systematic error and skill in forecasting large-scale weather regime transitions;The dependence of extended-range systematic error and skill on model horizontal resolution;Monthly mean forecasts of tropical rainfall;Tropical/extratropical interaction, and the influence of tropical low-frequency variability on extratropical forecast skill;Ensemble forecasting, including the impact of ensemble averaging on forecast skill, and ensemble dispersion as a measure of forecast reliability; andProbabilistic forecasting using phase-space cluster analysis.Our results are broadly consistent with those from other major centers evaluating the feasibility of dynamical extended-range prediction. We believe that operational extended-range forecasting using the ECMWF model may be viable to day 20and possibly beyondfollowing further research on techniques for Monte Carlo forecasting, and when model systematic error in the tropics has been reduced significantly. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Program on Extended-Range Prediction

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/1520-0477(1990)071<1317:TECFMR>2.0.CO;2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Results from a 3 1/2-yr experimental program of extended-range integrations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model are summarized. The topics discussed includeThe evolution of extended-range systematic error and skill in forecasting large-scale weather regime transitions;The dependence of extended-range systematic error and skill on model horizontal resolution;Monthly mean forecasts of tropical rainfall;Tropical/extratropical interaction, and the influence of tropical low-frequency variability on extratropical forecast skill;Ensemble forecasting, including the impact of ensemble averaging on forecast skill, and ensemble dispersion as a measure of forecast reliability; andProbabilistic forecasting using phase-space cluster analysis.Our results are broadly consistent with those from other major centers evaluating the feasibility of dynamical extended-range prediction. We believe that operational extended-range forecasting using the ECMWF model may be viable to day 20and possibly beyondfollowing further research on techniques for Monte Carlo forecasting, and when model systematic error in the tropics has been reduced significantly.

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 1, 1990

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