AbstractENSO is investigated here by considering it as a transition from different states. Transition probability matrices can be defined to describe the evolution of ENSO in this way. Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are classified into four categories, or states, and the probability to move from one state to another has been calculated both for observations and a simulation from a GCM. This could be useful for understanding and diagnosing General Circulation Models elucidating the mechanisms that govern ENSO in models. Furthermore, these matrices have been used to define a predictability index of ENSO based on the entropy concept introduced by Shannon (1948). The index correctly identifies the emergence of the Spring Predictability Barrier and the seasonal variations of the transition probabilities. The Transition Probability Matrices could also be used to formulate a basic prediction model for ENSO that was tested here on a case study.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Mar 28, 2017
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.
Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.
It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera