Steps toward an Integrated Approach to Hydrometeorological Forecasting Services

Steps toward an Integrated Approach to Hydrometeorological Forecasting Services In the 23 years since Hurricane Camille devastated Virginia with 27 inches of rain in 24 hours, a major area targeted for hydrometeorological forecast service improvements has been flood and flash flood forecasting. The first attempts to tackle the problems were event driven. Numerous poststorm analyses led to the definition of meteorological criteria often associated with various types of major flash floodproducing rainfall situations. Individual forecast offices attempted to use these techniques with inconsistent success. Additionally, verification was not carried out on a routine or systematic basis.In 1979, the National Weather Service (NWS) Eastern Region began to encourage its offices to use precipitation forecasts routinely to anticipate critical flood conditions, rather than awaiting observations of rainfall. However, the implementation of a broadscale programmatic approach to the routine operational use of quantitative precipitation forecasting faced numerous hurdles. Complexities ran the gamut of operational problems; and broadscale efforts to implement the program floundered. At the same time, public and private sector users continued to request more accurate information with better lead time for response. Academic studies showed that in order to gain enough lead time for effective decision making and response, it is essential to incorporate the uncertainty of the precipitation forecast into flood forecast operations.Within the last five years, the NWS once again introduced the possibility of a disciplined, systematic, scientific application of these ideas in the field of operational forecasting. The NWS modernization has afforded the vehicle to implement these concepts operationally. In parallel, NWS forecasters and university researchers have collaborated on probabilistic approaches to the rainfall forecast problem, integrating theory, method, process, and operations.Based on 20 years of progressive learning and operational experience, the NWS now has the tools, the understanding, and the scientific and operational capabilities to expand the efforts nationally. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

Steps toward an Integrated Approach to Hydrometeorological Forecasting Services

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/steps-toward-an-integrated-approach-to-hydrometeorological-forecasting-gQHeV5eQ0o
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/1520-0477-75.7.1267
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In the 23 years since Hurricane Camille devastated Virginia with 27 inches of rain in 24 hours, a major area targeted for hydrometeorological forecast service improvements has been flood and flash flood forecasting. The first attempts to tackle the problems were event driven. Numerous poststorm analyses led to the definition of meteorological criteria often associated with various types of major flash floodproducing rainfall situations. Individual forecast offices attempted to use these techniques with inconsistent success. Additionally, verification was not carried out on a routine or systematic basis.In 1979, the National Weather Service (NWS) Eastern Region began to encourage its offices to use precipitation forecasts routinely to anticipate critical flood conditions, rather than awaiting observations of rainfall. However, the implementation of a broadscale programmatic approach to the routine operational use of quantitative precipitation forecasting faced numerous hurdles. Complexities ran the gamut of operational problems; and broadscale efforts to implement the program floundered. At the same time, public and private sector users continued to request more accurate information with better lead time for response. Academic studies showed that in order to gain enough lead time for effective decision making and response, it is essential to incorporate the uncertainty of the precipitation forecast into flood forecast operations.Within the last five years, the NWS once again introduced the possibility of a disciplined, systematic, scientific application of these ideas in the field of operational forecasting. The NWS modernization has afforded the vehicle to implement these concepts operationally. In parallel, NWS forecasters and university researchers have collaborated on probabilistic approaches to the rainfall forecast problem, integrating theory, method, process, and operations.Based on 20 years of progressive learning and operational experience, the NWS now has the tools, the understanding, and the scientific and operational capabilities to expand the efforts nationally.

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Jul 18, 1994

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off