Sensitivity Analysis of Hurricane Arthur (2014) Storm Surge Forecasts to WRF Physics Parameterizations and Model Configurations

Sensitivity Analysis of Hurricane Arthur (2014) Storm Surge Forecasts to WRF Physics... AbstractThrough a case study of Hurricane Arthur (2014), the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) are used to investigate the sensitivity of storm surge forecasts to physics parameterizations and configurations of the initial and boundary conditions in WRF. The turbulence closure scheme in the planetary boundary layer affects the prediction of the storm intensity: the local closure scheme produces lower equivalent potential temperature than the non-local closure schemes, leading to significant reductions in the maximum surface wind speed and surge heights. On the other hand, higher-class cloud microphysics schemes over-predict the wind speed, resulting in large over-prediction of storm surge at some coastal locations. Without cumulus parameterization in the outermost domain, both the wind speed and storm surge are grossly under-predicted due to large precipitation decreases in the storm center. None of the choices for the WRF physics parameterization schemes significantly affect the prediction of Arthur’s track. Sea surface temperature affects the latent heat release from the ocean surface and thus storm intensity and storm surge predictions. The large-scale atmospheric circulation models provide the initial and boundary conditions for WRF, and influence both the track and intensity predictions, thereby changing the spatial distribution of storm surge along the coastline. These sensitivity analyses underline the need of using an ensemble modeling approach to improve the storm surge forecasts. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Weather and Forecasting American Meteorological Society

Sensitivity Analysis of Hurricane Arthur (2014) Storm Surge Forecasts to WRF Physics Parameterizations and Model Configurations

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/sensitivity-analysis-of-hurricane-arthur-2014-storm-surge-forecasts-to-QNikJ59NCk
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0434
D.O.I.
10.1175/WAF-D-16-0218.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThrough a case study of Hurricane Arthur (2014), the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) are used to investigate the sensitivity of storm surge forecasts to physics parameterizations and configurations of the initial and boundary conditions in WRF. The turbulence closure scheme in the planetary boundary layer affects the prediction of the storm intensity: the local closure scheme produces lower equivalent potential temperature than the non-local closure schemes, leading to significant reductions in the maximum surface wind speed and surge heights. On the other hand, higher-class cloud microphysics schemes over-predict the wind speed, resulting in large over-prediction of storm surge at some coastal locations. Without cumulus parameterization in the outermost domain, both the wind speed and storm surge are grossly under-predicted due to large precipitation decreases in the storm center. None of the choices for the WRF physics parameterization schemes significantly affect the prediction of Arthur’s track. Sea surface temperature affects the latent heat release from the ocean surface and thus storm intensity and storm surge predictions. The large-scale atmospheric circulation models provide the initial and boundary conditions for WRF, and influence both the track and intensity predictions, thereby changing the spatial distribution of storm surge along the coastline. These sensitivity analyses underline the need of using an ensemble modeling approach to improve the storm surge forecasts.

Journal

Weather and ForecastingAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Jul 27, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off