AbstractNear-surface Arctic warming has been shown to impact the midlatitude jet-streams through the use of carefully designed model simulations with and without Arctic sea ice loss. In this work, we instead take a Granger causality regression approach to quantify the response of the zonal wind to variability of near-surface Arctic temperatures on subseasonal timescales across the CMIP5 models. Using this technique, we demonstrate a robust influence of regional Arctic warming on the North Atlantic and North Pacific jet-stream positions, speeds and zonal winds. However, Arctic temperatures only explain an additional 3-5% of the variance of the winds after accounting for the variance associated with the persistence of the wind anomalies from previous weeks.In terms of the jet-stream response, the North Pacific and North Atlantic jet-streams consistently shift equatorward in response to Arctic warming, but also strengthen, rather than weaken, during most months of the year. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the jet-stream position and strength to Arctic warming is shown to be a strong function of season. Specifically, in both ocean basins, the jets shift furthest equatorward in the summer months. We argue that this seasonal sensitivity is due to the Arctic-warming-induced wind anomalies remaining relatively fixed in latitude, while the climatological jet migrates in and out of the anomalies throughout the annual cycle. Based on these results, we go on to demonstrate that model differences in the climatological jet-stream position lead to differences in the jet-stream position’s sensitivity to Arctic warming.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Sep 25, 2017
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera