Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing

Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing AbstractBased on research showing that in the case of a strong aerosol forcing, this forcing establishes itself early in the historical record, a simple model is constructed to explore the implications of a strongly negative aerosol forcing on the early (pre-1950) part of the instrumental record. This model, which contains terms representing both aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, well represents the known time history of aerosol radiative forcing as well as the effect of the natural state on the strength of aerosol forcing. Model parameters, randomly drawn to represent uncertainty in understanding, demonstrate that a forcing more negative than −1.0 W m−2 is implausible, as it implies that none of the approximately 0.3-K temperature rise between 1850 and 1950 can be attributed to Northern Hemisphere forcing. The individual terms of the model are interpreted in light of comprehensive modeling, constraints from observations, and physical understanding to provide further support for the less negative (−1.0 W m−2) lower bound. These findings suggest that aerosol radiative forcing is less negative and more certain than is commonly believed. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing

Journal of Climate , Volume 28 (12): 26 – Jun 25, 2015

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/rethinking-the-lower-bound-on-aerosol-radiative-forcing-ExqtcFZBeu
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
eISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00656.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractBased on research showing that in the case of a strong aerosol forcing, this forcing establishes itself early in the historical record, a simple model is constructed to explore the implications of a strongly negative aerosol forcing on the early (pre-1950) part of the instrumental record. This model, which contains terms representing both aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, well represents the known time history of aerosol radiative forcing as well as the effect of the natural state on the strength of aerosol forcing. Model parameters, randomly drawn to represent uncertainty in understanding, demonstrate that a forcing more negative than −1.0 W m−2 is implausible, as it implies that none of the approximately 0.3-K temperature rise between 1850 and 1950 can be attributed to Northern Hemisphere forcing. The individual terms of the model are interpreted in light of comprehensive modeling, constraints from observations, and physical understanding to provide further support for the less negative (−1.0 W m−2) lower bound. These findings suggest that aerosol radiative forcing is less negative and more certain than is commonly believed.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Jun 25, 2015

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off