Responses of the Summertime Subtropical Anticyclones to Global Warming

Responses of the Summertime Subtropical Anticyclones to Global Warming AbstractSubtropical anticyclones dominate the subtropical ocean basins in summer. Using the multimodel output from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the future changes of the subtropical anticyclones as a response to global warming are investigated, based on the changes in subsidence, low-level divergence, and rotational wind. The subtropical anticyclones over the North Pacific, South Atlantic, and south Indian Ocean are projected to become weaker, whereas the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone (NASA) intensifies, and the South Pacific subtropical anticyclone (SPSA) shows uncertainty but is likely to intensify. Diagnostic analyses and idealized simulations suggest that the projected changes in the subtropical anticyclones are well explained by the combined effect of increased tropospheric static stability and changes in diabatic heating. Increased static stability acts to reduce the intensity of all the subtropical anticyclones, through the positive mean advection of stratification change (MASC) over the subsidence regions of the subtropical anticyclones. The pattern of change in diabatic heating is dominated by latent heating associated with changes in precipitation, which is enhanced over the western North Pacific under the “richest get richer” mechanism but is reduced over subtropical North Atlantic and South Pacific due to a local minimum of SST warming amplitude. The change in the diabatic heating pattern substantially enhances the subtropical anticyclones over the North Atlantic and South Pacific but weakens the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Responses of the Summertime Subtropical Anticyclones to Global Warming

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
eISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0529.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractSubtropical anticyclones dominate the subtropical ocean basins in summer. Using the multimodel output from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the future changes of the subtropical anticyclones as a response to global warming are investigated, based on the changes in subsidence, low-level divergence, and rotational wind. The subtropical anticyclones over the North Pacific, South Atlantic, and south Indian Ocean are projected to become weaker, whereas the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone (NASA) intensifies, and the South Pacific subtropical anticyclone (SPSA) shows uncertainty but is likely to intensify. Diagnostic analyses and idealized simulations suggest that the projected changes in the subtropical anticyclones are well explained by the combined effect of increased tropospheric static stability and changes in diabatic heating. Increased static stability acts to reduce the intensity of all the subtropical anticyclones, through the positive mean advection of stratification change (MASC) over the subsidence regions of the subtropical anticyclones. The pattern of change in diabatic heating is dominated by latent heating associated with changes in precipitation, which is enhanced over the western North Pacific under the “richest get richer” mechanism but is reduced over subtropical North Atlantic and South Pacific due to a local minimum of SST warming amplitude. The change in the diabatic heating pattern substantially enhances the subtropical anticyclones over the North Atlantic and South Pacific but weakens the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Aug 19, 2017

References

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