Regional Sea Level Changes for the Twentieth and the Twenty-First Centuries Induced by the Regional Variability in Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss

Regional Sea Level Changes for the Twentieth and the Twenty-First Centuries Induced by the... AbstractSurface mass balance (SMB) variations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) have been identified as an important contributor to contemporary and projected global mean sea level variations, but their impact on the regional sea level change pattern is still poorly known. This study proposes estimates of GrIS SMB over 1900–2100 based on the output of 32 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models and Earth system models involved in phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is based on a downscaling technique calibrated against the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model and it provides an ensemble of 32 Greenland SMB estimates for each Greenland major drainage basin. Because the GrIS SMB does not respond uniformly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the southern part of the GrIS is more sensitive to climate warming. This study shows that this part should be in imbalance in the twenty-first century sooner than the northern part. This regional variability significantly affects the associated relative sea level pattern over the entire ocean and particularly along the U.S. East Coast and the northern coast of Europe. This highlights the necessity of taking into account GrIS regional SMB changes to evaluate accurately relative sea level changes in future projections. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Regional Sea Level Changes for the Twentieth and the Twenty-First Centuries Induced by the Regional Variability in Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
eISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0337.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractSurface mass balance (SMB) variations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) have been identified as an important contributor to contemporary and projected global mean sea level variations, but their impact on the regional sea level change pattern is still poorly known. This study proposes estimates of GrIS SMB over 1900–2100 based on the output of 32 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models and Earth system models involved in phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is based on a downscaling technique calibrated against the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model and it provides an ensemble of 32 Greenland SMB estimates for each Greenland major drainage basin. Because the GrIS SMB does not respond uniformly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the southern part of the GrIS is more sensitive to climate warming. This study shows that this part should be in imbalance in the twenty-first century sooner than the northern part. This regional variability significantly affects the associated relative sea level pattern over the entire ocean and particularly along the U.S. East Coast and the northern coast of Europe. This highlights the necessity of taking into account GrIS regional SMB changes to evaluate accurately relative sea level changes in future projections.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Mar 26, 2017

References

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