Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption During 1896-2043.

Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption During 1896-2043. AbstractUsing state-level monthly heating degree day (HDD) data, reconstructed per-capita natural gas (NGr) consumption records for each state of the continental U.S. were calculated during 1895-2014 using linear regressions. The regressed monthly NGr values estimate the effects of 20th and early 21st century climate variation on per-capita natural gas usage, assuming a modern (1990-2013) consumption environment. Using these extended consumption records, the hypothetical effects of climate on past, current, and future NG use are estimated. By controlling for non-climatic consumption effects, these extended reconstructions provide estimates of the sensitivity of NG consumption to historical climate variation, particularly long-term warming trends, occurring before the period of available consumption records. After detrending, the reconstructions are used to form improved estimates of inter-annual NG variation under current climate conditions. Finally, given estimates of each state’s current consumption climatology and long-term trends in per-capita consumption and current population trends, the net effect of warming and increasing population on future consumption is estimated. Significant long-term negative trends in per-capita NG consumption are found in western and northeastern states and Florida, while southeastern consumption effects reflect a multi-decadal temperature cycle. Climate related consumption effects found here are generally consistent with previous studies, with long-term trend effects limited to less than 12%, and multi-decadal regime effects limited to less than 9%. Given the stronger positive effects of increasing population on total state natural gas consumption, reduced per-capita use associated with warming trends has a weak moderating effect on estimates of projected total consumption in 2043. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology American Meteorological Society

Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption During 1896-2043.

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1558-8432
D.O.I.
10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0155.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractUsing state-level monthly heating degree day (HDD) data, reconstructed per-capita natural gas (NGr) consumption records for each state of the continental U.S. were calculated during 1895-2014 using linear regressions. The regressed monthly NGr values estimate the effects of 20th and early 21st century climate variation on per-capita natural gas usage, assuming a modern (1990-2013) consumption environment. Using these extended consumption records, the hypothetical effects of climate on past, current, and future NG use are estimated. By controlling for non-climatic consumption effects, these extended reconstructions provide estimates of the sensitivity of NG consumption to historical climate variation, particularly long-term warming trends, occurring before the period of available consumption records. After detrending, the reconstructions are used to form improved estimates of inter-annual NG variation under current climate conditions. Finally, given estimates of each state’s current consumption climatology and long-term trends in per-capita consumption and current population trends, the net effect of warming and increasing population on future consumption is estimated. Significant long-term negative trends in per-capita NG consumption are found in western and northeastern states and Florida, while southeastern consumption effects reflect a multi-decadal temperature cycle. Climate related consumption effects found here are generally consistent with previous studies, with long-term trend effects limited to less than 12%, and multi-decadal regime effects limited to less than 9%. Given the stronger positive effects of increasing population on total state natural gas consumption, reduced per-capita use associated with warming trends has a weak moderating effect on estimates of projected total consumption in 2043.

Journal

Journal of Applied Meteorology and ClimatologyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Dec 19, 2017

References

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