Real-Time Operational Forecasting on Shipboard of the IcelandFaeroe Frontal Variability

Real-Time Operational Forecasting on Shipboard of the IcelandFaeroe Frontal Variability Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of IcelandFaeroe frontal variability were executed for the first time with a primitive equation model. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993 were used for initialization, updating, and validation of the forecasts. Vigorous and rapid synoptic events occurred over several-day timescales including a southeastward reorientation of the IcelandFaeroe Front and the development of a strong, cold deep-sock meander. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the skill of these forecasts shows they captured the essential features of both events. The anomaly pattern correlation coefficient and the rms error between forecast and observed fields are particularly impressive (and substantially superior to persistence) for the forecast of the cold meander. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

Real-Time Operational Forecasting on Shipboard of the IcelandFaeroe Frontal Variability

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0243:RTOFOS>2.0.CO;2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of IcelandFaeroe frontal variability were executed for the first time with a primitive equation model. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993 were used for initialization, updating, and validation of the forecasts. Vigorous and rapid synoptic events occurred over several-day timescales including a southeastward reorientation of the IcelandFaeroe Front and the development of a strong, cold deep-sock meander. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the skill of these forecasts shows they captured the essential features of both events. The anomaly pattern correlation coefficient and the rms error between forecast and observed fields are particularly impressive (and substantially superior to persistence) for the forecast of the cold meander.

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Feb 5, 1996

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