Projected changes in the Arctic frontal zone and summer Arctic cyclone activity in the CESM Large Ensemble

Projected changes in the Arctic frontal zone and summer Arctic cyclone activity in the CESM Large... AbstractThe Arctic frontal zone (AFZ) is a narrow band of strong horizontal temperature gradients that develops along the Arctic Ocean coastline each summer in response to differential heating of the atmosphere over adjacent land and ocean surfaces. Past research has linked baroclinicity within the AFZ to summer Arctic cyclone development, especially by intensifying storms that migrate northward from the Eurasian continent. This study uses the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble in conjunction with an advanced cyclone detection and tracking algorithm to assess how the AFZ, summer Arctic cyclone activity, and the relationship between them respond to warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Under this strong warming scenario, the AFZ remains a significant cyclone intensifier. Changes to the AFZ are largely restricted to June, when earlier snow melt leads to strengthening of land-ocean temperature contrasts. This strengthening is accompanied by enhanced cyclogenesis along the east Siberian coast, but no change is observed for overall cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean. However, simultaneous changes to sub-polar storm tracks impact Arctic cyclone activity in all summer months, sometimes in opposition to the impact of the AFZ. In June, the storms migrating poleward to the Arctic Ocean become weaker under RCP8.5, leading to lower Arctic cyclone intensity. In July and August, the poleward shift of the North Pacific storm track enhances cyclone activity in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Projected changes in the Arctic frontal zone and summer Arctic cyclone activity in the CESM Large Ensemble

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/projected-changes-in-the-arctic-frontal-zone-and-summer-arctic-cyclone-MloXWb6OYo
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0296.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe Arctic frontal zone (AFZ) is a narrow band of strong horizontal temperature gradients that develops along the Arctic Ocean coastline each summer in response to differential heating of the atmosphere over adjacent land and ocean surfaces. Past research has linked baroclinicity within the AFZ to summer Arctic cyclone development, especially by intensifying storms that migrate northward from the Eurasian continent. This study uses the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble in conjunction with an advanced cyclone detection and tracking algorithm to assess how the AFZ, summer Arctic cyclone activity, and the relationship between them respond to warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Under this strong warming scenario, the AFZ remains a significant cyclone intensifier. Changes to the AFZ are largely restricted to June, when earlier snow melt leads to strengthening of land-ocean temperature contrasts. This strengthening is accompanied by enhanced cyclogenesis along the east Siberian coast, but no change is observed for overall cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean. However, simultaneous changes to sub-polar storm tracks impact Arctic cyclone activity in all summer months, sometimes in opposition to the impact of the AFZ. In June, the storms migrating poleward to the Arctic Ocean become weaker under RCP8.5, leading to lower Arctic cyclone intensity. In July and August, the poleward shift of the North Pacific storm track enhances cyclone activity in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 8, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off