AbstractEight years’ worth of day 1 and 4.5 years’ worth of day 2–3 probabilistic convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are converted to probability grids spanning the continental United States (CONUS). These results are then evaluated using standard probabilistic forecast metrics including the Brier skill score and reliability diagrams. Forecasts are gridded in two different ways: one with a high-resolution grid and interpolation between probability contours and another on an 80-km-spaced grid without interpolation. Overall, the highest skill is found for severe wind forecasts and the lowest skill is observed for tornadoes; for significant severe criteria, the opposite discrepancy is observed, with highest forecast skill for significant tornadoes and approximately no overall forecast skill for significant severe winds. Highest climatology-relative skill is generally observed over the central and northern Great Plains and Midwest, with the lowest—and often negative—skill seen in the West, southern Texas, and the Atlantic Southeast. No discernible year-to-year trend in skill was identified; seasonally, forecasts verified the best in the spring and late autumn and worst in the summer and early autumn. Forecasts are also evaluated in CAPE-versus-shear parameter space; forecasts struggle most in very low shear but also in high-shear, low-CAPE environments. In aggregate, forecasts for all variables verified more skillfully using interpolated probability grids, suggesting utility in interpreting forecasts as a continuous field. Forecast reliability results depend substantially on the interpretation of the forecast fields, but day 1 and day 2–3 tornado outlooks consistently exhibit an underforecast bias.
Weather and Forecasting – American Meteorological Society
Published: Feb 18, 2018
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera