AbstractAnalogs are used as a forecast postprocessing technique, in which a statistical forecast is derived from past prognostic states. This study proposes a method to identify analogs through spatial objects, which are then used to create forecast ensembles. The object-analog technique preserves the field’s spatial relationships, reduces spatial dimensionality, and consequently facilitates the use of artificial intelligence algorithms to improve analog selection. Forecast objects are created with a three-step object selection, combining standard image processing algorithms. The resulting objects are used to find similar forecasts in a training set with a similarity measure based on object area intersection and magnitude. Storm-induced power outages in the Northeast United States motivated the method’s validation for 10-m AGL wind speed forecasts. The training set comprises reforecasts and reanalyses of events that caused damages to the utility infrastructure. The corresponding reanalyses of the best reforecast analogs are used to produce the object-analog ensemble forecasts. The forecasts are compared with other analog forecast methods. Analogs representing lower and upper predictability limits provide references to distinguish the method’s ability (to find good analogs) from the training set’s ability (to provide good analogs) to generate skillful ensemble forecasts. The object-analog forecasts are competitively skillful compared to simpler analog techniques with an advantage of lower spatial dimensionality, while generating reliable ensemble forecasts, with reduced systematic and random errors, maintaining correlation, and improving Brier scores.
Monthly Weather Review – American Meteorological Society
Published: Dec 18, 2017
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera